When It Hits the Fan/Specific Calamities

Calamity. From the Latin clāmāre (“to shout, proclaim, declare, cry out”); Latin calamitās (“loss, damage; disaster”). Most calamities resonate across time and are historic facts. But a calamity prediction is a shout to action as to avoid a future disaster. The root of the word disaster ("bad star" in Greek) comes from an astrological idea that when the stars are in a bad position a bad event will happen.

In the vast expanse of our universe, humans occupy a peculiar position—caught between the enormity of cosmic forces and the fragility of our existence. This duality is nowhere more evident than in our perception of calamitous events. Any disaster is a tragedy born out of a natural occurrence or human-made activity. Increasingly they have in origin of a human-made hazard that negatively affects society or environment. Such events, whether natural disasters like earthquakes and hurricanes, or man-made catastrophes such as nuclear explosions and pandemics, challenge our understanding of scale and impact. They force us to confront the limits of human comprehension and resilience, pushing against the boundaries of what we can perceive and understand within our finite cognitive capacities.

In contemporary academia, disasters are seen as the consequence of inappropriately managed risk. These risks are the product of hazards and vulnerability. Hazards that strike in areas with low vulnerability are not considered a disaster, as is the case in uninhabited regions.

Developing countries suffer the greatest costs when a disaster hits – more than 95 percent of all deaths caused by disasters occur in developing countries, and losses due to natural disasters are 20 times greater (as a percentage of GDP) in developing countries than in industrialized countries.

A disaster can be defined as any tragic event that involves at least one victim of circumstance, such as an accident, fire, terrorist attack, or explosion.

There are plenty of reasons to be worried, but chances are that you will never experience any of these calamities, the best way of avoiding such events (or survive them) is ultimately simple be aware of the possibility and informed. Things like our solar system being "eaten" by a black hole or galactic collisions (that will certainly happen), haven't been put on the list because probability that they will affect you is 0 or very near.

The Challenge of Scale

The sheer magnitude of these events often exceeds the human capacity to grasp their full extent. Earthquakes, for instance, can span hundreds of kilometers, affecting millions of people across vast geographical areas. Yet, our brains, evolved over millennia to navigate environments on a much smaller scale, struggle to comprehend the breadth and depth of such phenomena. Similarly, pandemics spread globally at speeds that defy intuitive understanding, challenging our ability to perceive the interconnectedness of our world.

Understanding human scale perception of calamitous events is crucial for developing effective strategies for mitigation, response, and recovery. It requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining insights from psychology, sociology, geography, and environmental science, among others. By exploring the ways in which human cognition and emotion interact with the physical realities of large-scale disasters, we can begin to bridge the gap between the scale of these events and our limited human perception.

This exploration is not merely academic; it has profound implications for public policy, disaster management, and individual preparedness. Recognizing the limitations of human perception in the face of calamity allows us to better prepare, respond, and recover, safeguarding both lives and livelihoods in an increasingly uncertain world.

Cognitive Limits

Beyond the challenge of scale lies the inherent limitation of human cognition. Our minds are not equipped to process information at the speed or volume required to fully grasp the unfolding of catastrophic events. The complexity and rapid pace of change during such times strain our cognitive resources, leading to a disconnect between the reality of the event and our perception of it. This disconnect can result in underestimation of risk, delayed response, or even denial of the severity of the situation.

Emotional and Psychological Impact

The emotional and psychological toll of witnessing or experiencing calamities further complicates our perception. Fear, shock, and disbelief can cloud judgment and distort perceptions, making it difficult to assess the situation accurately. Moreover, the long-term psychological effects of such events, including trauma and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), can alter how individuals and communities perceive future risks and respond to them.

Natural events
A Natural phenomenon can easily turn into a natural disaster. Appearing to arise without direct human involvement, natural disasters are sometimes called an act of God as they may seem to defy simple and concise logical explanation or scientific reasoning for their occurrence in time or location and in general terms humanity has no short term direct control over the referred event.

Increasingly due to our technological advances human actions can easily shape, compound and accelerate natural occurring processes and so a natural disaster may become more severe because of human actions prior, during or after the disaster itself. For example there is a strong correlation between hydraulic fracturing (Fracking) and seismic activity and in general any human activity in risk areas may cause or promote natural disasters.

A specific disaster may spawn different types of events that may even reduce the survivability after the initial event. A classic example, is an earthquake that collapses homes, trapping people and breaking gas mains that then ignite, and burn people alive while trapped under debris. Volcanoes are particularly prone to causing other events like fires, lahars, mudflows, landslides, earthquakes, and tsunamis.

In the vast expanse of the universe, humanity stands as a unique entity, a product of evolutionary forces that have shaped life on Earth. Our emergence and subsequent evolution are not mere accidents of nature but seem to fulfill a purpose within the grand scheme of things. To understand humanity's purpose, we must first consider the universe itself—a dynamic, living entity teeming with energy and matter. The conditions that allowed life to emerge on Earth are extraordinary, suggesting a finely tuned harmony that supports life's existence. From the precise distance of our planet from the sun, the protective magnetic field, and the availability of essential elements, to the delicate balance of gases in our atmosphere, each aspect contributes to creating a habitat conducive to life.

Life, in its myriad forms, acts as a catalyst within this living universe. It evolves to harness and transform energy more efficiently, embodying the principle of self-organization observed in ecosystems. This evolutionary drive is not random but guided by natural selection and environmental feedbacks, leading to the emergence of species that can utilize energy most effectively. Humanity, as a pinnacle of this evolutionary process, represents a specialized tool designed to manage and sustain the biosphere.

Viewing humanity through this lens, we see ourselves not just as inhabitants of Earth but as stewards tasked with preserving and enhancing life's prospects. Our intelligence, creativity, and technological prowess equip us uniquely to address challenges that arise from our own actions and those of the natural world. This guardianship extends beyond our planet, as we explore the cosmos, seeking to understand our place in the universe and potentially spreading life to other worlds.

With great power comes great responsibility, and humanity's technological advancements bring with them the obligation to wield this power wisely. The ability to manipulate the environment, communicate instantaneously across continents, and even alter the genetic makeup of life places us in a position akin to a global guardian. This role demands vigilance, foresight, and ethical consideration in how we interact with our environment and each other.

Human break away from nature and natural processes

Its is hard to define when it occurred, but we broke out of the natural circle of nature due to the use of intelligence and tools, it probably started with the discovery of fire if it indeed was a discovery of Homo sapiens it may have been learned from one of our extinct cousin species. But what support this separation is culture and social relations, this is why we revert to more primal mindsets when in despair and extreme need and how simple survival prevents profound thought and the development of culture and technology. We have been morphological the same for more or less 35 million years, mentally almost the same and high culture only evolved from agriculture, sedentism and slavery probably one thousand years before Göbekli Tepe (a Neolithic archaeological site that was inhabited from c. 9500 to at least 8000 BCE, during the Pre-Pottery Neolithic. Among the world's oldest known megaliths. The site was first used at the dawn of the Southwest Asian Neolithic period, which marked the appearance of the oldest permanent human settlements anywhere in the world.).

While there may have been a beginning, the process continues. In the grand tapestry of human evolution, the threads of adaptation and survival are woven intricately with the fabric of our daily lives. Among these threads, the practices surrounding childbirth and the broader implications of these practices on human fertility, sexual identity, and societal norms often go unnoticed, yet they carry profound significance.

In exploring the complexities of human perception and awareness of global issues, we highlight the silent fertility crisis—a critical yet often overlooked factor contributing to counterintuitive demographic effects worldwide. This crisis is just one aspect of a multifaceted challenge shaping our societies, exacerbated by mass emigration due to increased instability, particularly in labor markets versus worker rights, access to resources, and the security of supply chains. As we transition from peak abundance to a state of declining resources, even advanced societies face the challenge of younger generations inheriting fewer resources than their predecessors. This situation is further complicated by aging populations living longer lives, underpinned by current economic and political challenges, legacy issues such as outdated institutions, and the dismantling of familial structures. Additionally, the looming specter of pollution, war, and economic insecurity casts a shadow over future prospects.

This era witnesses a replication of historical patterns of societal unrest through unequal distribution of resources, reminiscent of example given in the Arab Spring of 2011—a movement that was both a cry for justice and a tool for advancing US democratic values (distinct and flawed) and interests (mostly shoort term economic profit and medium term melitar-strategist regime control/change). The upcoming century promises a shift in global power dynamics from Anglo-Americans (not the West as a block as Europe still maintains certain independent thinking) to East, driven by demographic pressures that define market opportunities. China's unique demographic trajectory, potentially leading to conflict from 2024 on (China demographics give it a window that facilitates beligecy in the defense of what it percieves as its interests), all this underscores the urgency of addressing fertility rates stability (exprecially in that region of the globe), which have declined globally over the past half-century. Research indicates that a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of approximately 2.1 is necessary to sustain a stable population, a figure that has steadily decreased alongside women's growing autonomy and access to alternative life paths.

The intersection of opportunity and uncertainty faced by younger generations, coupled with disparities in access to housing, security, food, economic stability, and valid and rewarding educational opportunities, presents a universal dilemma. Each society faces unique pressure points, yet the underlying issues—access to essential resources and the predictability of life improvement—are universally relevant. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive approach that acknowledges the interconnectedness of demographic trends, societal structures, and individual choices in shaping our collective future.

The Shift Towards Cesarean Sections

A pivotal moment in the history of human reproduction has been the widespread adoption of cesarean sections (C-sections). While this surgical procedure has undoubtedly saved countless lives and alleviated suffering, it has also introduced a subtle yet significant shift in human evolution. The ease of C-sections has led to an increase in the number of births performed through this method, which, in turn, affects the genetic pool and the physical adaptations necessary for natural childbirth. Research indicates that the prevalence of C-sections is influencing the evolution of pelvic dimensions, potentially leading to a narrowing of the pelvis in future generations. This phenomenon raises questions about the long-term implications of such medical interventions on human anatomy and physiology.

Microbial Landscape and Immune System Development

Beyond the physical aspects, the mode of delivery significantly influences the early microbial colonization of infants, which plays a crucial role in shaping their immune systems. Studies have shown that babies delivered vaginally are colonized predominantly by Lactobacillus, beneficial bacteria that promote a healthy immune response. In contrast, C-section-born infants are more likely to be colonized by potentially pathogenic bacteria, such as Staphylococcus and Acinetobacter, which are commonly found on the skin and in hospital environments. This difference in microbial exposure can lead to altered immune development, potentially increasing the risk of certain childhood diseases, including asthma and allergic reactions, already aggravated by our distanctiation (intentional or processual divergence) from natural environments.

Environmental Factors and Fertility

The landscape of human fertility and sexual identity is not just shaped by biological and sociocultural factors but is increasingly influenced by environmental elements. The pervasive presence of pollutants, hormonal interactions, plastic chemicals, and the extensive use of pesticides in agriculture pose significant challenges to reproductive health and societal norms. These issues, often overlooked, underscore the complex interplay between human biology, environment, and culture.

Environmental pollutants, including endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) found in plastics and pesticides, can interfere with the body’s hormone production and signaling. EDCs mimic or interfere with hormones such as estrogen and testosterone, which play crucial roles in sexual development, fertility, and reproductive health. Exposure to these chemicals during sensitive developmental periods can lead to alterations in sexual characteristics, reduced fertility, and increased risk of certain cancers. The cumulative effect of these disruptions across populations can subtly reshape societal norms around gender and sexuality, as individuals navigate changing physical and reproductive capabilities.

Plastics, Chemicals and Biological Agents

Plastic pollution, a ubiquitous feature of modern life, introduces numerous synthetic chemicals into the environment and food chain. Many of these chemicals are known to act as EDCs, disrupting normal hormonal functions. The widespread ingestion of microplastics and chemical residues through water, food, and air exposes individuals to constant low-level toxicity, potentially impacting fertility rates and the quality of offspring. This environmental factor, combined with the societal pressure to conform to traditional gender roles, creates a complex backdrop against which individuals negotiate their sexual identities and reproductive choices.

The agricultural sector, driven by the need for higher yields and pest control, relies heavily on pesticides and other biological agents. These substances, while essential for crop protection, can leach into groundwater and surface waters, contaminating drinking supplies and affecting human health. Prolonged exposure to pesticide residues can disrupt the endocrine system, impairing fertility and contributing to the decline in sperm count observed in many regions. Additionally, the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and associated pesticides can have indirect effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services, which in turn may influence human health and well-being.

These environmental factors, interacting with biological and sociocultural influences, contribute to a shifting landscape of human fertility and sexual identity. The impact of pollution and chemical exposure on reproductive health can lead to changes in societal attitudes towards fertility, parenthood, and gender roles. As individuals and communities adapt to new challenges and uncertainties related to reproduction, societal norms and expectations may evolve, reflecting both the physical and psychological adjustments necessitated by environmental changes.

Man-made events
Disasters resulting form an element of human intent, negligence, error or involving a failure of a human controlled system are called man-made disasters. Man-made disasters like power or telecommunication outages, may be caused by natural causes, like thunderstorms, tornadoes or earthquakes and though the root cause is an act of God, they are considered a man-made disaster because they not only involve a failure of a human system but are mostly predictable and can be planed for. The power grid and telecommunication infrastructure could be made more resilient against outages however, probably due to cost and feasibility constraints, the systems were intentionally left vulnerable to outage. With an increase in complexity of the failed human system there is also an increase in the likelihood that it becomes systemic.

Severe weather
Climate change is a complex phenomenon deeply intertwined with human activities, although humans are not solely responsible, they significantly contribute to its occurrence. This issue extends beyond mere increases in average temperatures to encompass rapid fluctuations in extreme weather events and heightened unpredictability. Additionally, the gradual rise in average temperatures has facilitated the continuous melting of glacial ice and polar ice caps, processes that have been ongoing for some time. Furthermore, the elevation of carbon levels in the atmosphere leads to ocean acidification and exacerbates the greenhouse effect. The sun's cycle also plays a role. The sun's energy output varies slightly over its approximately 11-year cycle, these variations account for only a small fraction of the recent warming observed. The majority of the warming is attributed to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.
 * Climate change

The primary driver behind the current climate change is human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, which releases significant amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This has led to a dramatic increase in the concentration of these gases, contributing to the overall warming of the planet.

Greenhouse Effect: The greenhouse effect is a natural process that warms the Earth's surface. However, human activities have amplified this effect, leading to higher temperatures and altering natural climate patterns. This has resulted in more frequent and severe weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall.

Weather Patterns and Erosion: Intensified weather patterns and accelerated erosion are critical components of the broader impacts of climate change. The relationship between heat, energy, and human activities underscores the urgency of addressing these issues.
 * Heat and Energy Dynamics: The burning of fossil fuels releases large quantities of greenhouse gases, which trap heat within the Earth's atmosphere. This process not only raises global temperatures but also alters the dynamics of energy exchange between the Earth and its atmosphere. The previously stored and reflected energy from the sun that is now retained leads to a rapid intensification of climate and weather patterns.
 * Impact on Weather Patterns: The increase in global temperatures leads to more frequent and severe weather events, including storms, floods, and droughts. Warmer ocean surfaces enhance the formation and intensity of cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons, which can devastate coastal communities and ecosystem.
 * Accelerated Erosion: Rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns exacerbate erosion processes. More intense rainfall and higher evaporation rates can lead to soil degradation and loss, undermining the stability of landscapes and the sustainability of agricultural practices. These changes necessitate adaptive measures to protect against the erosive forces of climate change.

Ocean Acidification: Increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere dissolve into oceans, forming carbonic acid. This process lowers the pH of seawater, a condition known as ocean acidification. It harms marine ecosystems, affecting organisms such as corals and shellfish, which rely on carbonate ions to build their skeletons and shells.

Sea-Level Rise: As global temperatures increase, thermal expansion of seawater and melting glaciers contribute to rising sea levels. This poses significant risks to coastal communities, threatening infrastructure, freshwater supplies, and biodiversity. Coastal erosion accelerates, further endangering habitats and reducing land available for agriculture and settlement. Flood Maps (http://flood.firetree.net/) is a WEB tool that permits to visualize the results of seawater level rise, in relation to coastal areas, it does not take in consideration normal erosion not claims to be extremely exact its errors are on the optimistic side.

Agricultural, Fishing Productivity and Harvesting of biologic resources: Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns can impact crop yields, wildfires and natural biologic processes, changes in habitats and reproduction. Warmer conditions may extend growing seasons in some regions but could also lead to more frequent and intense droughts in others, posing challenges to food security. Additionally, rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion threaten fertile lands, especially in low-lying areas.

The study of climate change and its effect are looked in more depth on the Wikibook Climate Change. Climate change may be a cause of specific weather related calamities because of the increased predictability, that may also affect food supplies and production. In 2011 unusual floods even impacted on the price of hard-disks since factories had been geographically concentrated, this type of disruptions will tend to occur more often and in faster cycles.

Winter storm
A snowstorm is a winter storm in which the primary form of precipitation is snow. When such a storm is accompanied by winds above 32 mph that severely reduce visibility, it becomes a blizzard. Hazards from snowstorms and blizzards include traffic-related accidents, hypothermia for those unable to find shelter, as well as major disruptions to transportation and fuel and power distribution systems.

Thunderstorm
A thunderstorm is a form of severe weather characterized by the presence of lightning and its attendant thunder, often accompanied by copious rainfall, hail and on occasion snowfall and tornadoes.

Hail-storm
A hailstorm is a natural disaster where a thunderstorm produces a numerous amount of hailstones which damage the location in which they fall. Hailstorms can be especially devastating to farm fields, ruining crops and damaging equipment. A particularly damaging hailstorm hit Munich, Germany on August 31, 1986, felling thousands of trees and causing millions of dollars in insurance claims. Skeleton Lake, a glacial lake in Uttarakhand state of India, was named so after 300-600 people were killed by a hailstorm.

Hurricane, Typhoon, or Tropical cyclone
A hurricane is a low-pressure cyclonic storm system which forms over the oceans. It is caused by evaporated water which comes off of the ocean and becomes a storm. The Coriolis Effect causes the storms to spin, and a hurricane is declared when this spinning mass of storms attains a wind speed greater than 74mph. In different parts of the world hurricanes are known as cyclones or typhoons. The former occur in the Indian Ocean, while the latter occur in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The most damaging hurricane ever was Hurricane Andrew, which hit southern Florida in 1992.

Storm surge
A storm surge is an onshore rush of water associated with a low pressure weather system, typically a tropical cyclone. Storm surge is caused primarily by high winds pushing on the ocean's surface. The wind causes the water to pile up higher than the ordinary sea level. Storm surges are particularly damaging when they occur at the time of a high tide, combining the effects of the surge and the tide. The highest storm surge ever recorded was produced by the 1899 Bathurst Bay Hurricane, which caused a 13 m (43 feet) storm surge at Bathurst Bay, Australia. In the US, the greatest recorded storm surge was generated by Hurricane Camille, which produced a storm surge in excess of 25 feet (7.6 m).

Tornado
A tornado is a natural disaster resulting from a thunderstorm. Tornadoes are violent currents of wind which can blow at up to 318mph. Tornadoes can occur one at a time, or can occur in large tornado outbreaks along a squall line. The worst tornado ever recorded in terms of wind speed was the tornado which swept through Moore, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999. This tornado has wind speeds of 318mph and was the strongest ever recorded.

Waterspout
A waterspout is a tornadic weather phenomena normally occurring over tropical waters in light rain conditions. They form at the base of cumulus-type clouds, extend to the water surface where winds pick up water spray. Waterspouts are dangerous to boats, planes and land structures. Many waterspouts occur in the Bermuda Triangle and are suspected of being the a cause of the many missing ships and planes in that region.

Drought
A drought is a long-lasting weather pattern consisting of dry conditions with very little or no precipitation. during this period, food and water supplies can run low, and other conditions, such as famine, can result. Droughts can last for several years and are particularly damaging in areas in which the residents depend on agriculture for survival. The Dust Bowl is a famous example of a severe drought.

Droughts are slowly evolving calamities, they can be planed for and with enough resources have their impact demolished. Unless the drought affects a full continent (lets say Australia) a drought can hardly be seen as a calamity that one needs to prepare specifically.

Biological-Chemical Contamination
A catch-all initialism meaning Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear. The term is used to describe a non-conventional terror threat that, if used by a nation, would be considered use of a weapon of mass destruction. This term is used primarily in the United Kingdom. Planning for a CBRN event may be appropriate for certain high-risk or high-value facilities and governments.
 * CBRNs

In this section we will not cover radiological threats, they will be covered in separate since are more distinct and rarer in occurrence by have higher and long lasting impacts.

The U.S. government today regulates 15 biological agents and in Set. 2014 asked universities to flag risky pathogen experiments.
 * Avian influenza virus (highly pathogenic)
 * Bacillus anthracis
 * Botulinum neurotoxin
 * Burkholderia mallei
 * Burkholderia pseudomallei
 * Ebola virus
 * Foot-and-mouth disease virus
 * Francisella tularensis
 * Marburg virus
 * Reconstructed 1918 Influenza virus
 * Rinderpest virus
 * Toxin-producing strains of Clostridium botulinum
 * Variola major virus
 * Variola minor virus
 * Yersinia pestis

Natural Events
Disease becomes a disaster when it spreads in a pandemic or epidemic as a massive outbreak off an infectious agent. Disease is historically the most dangerous of all natural disasters. Different epidemics are caused by different diseases, the Black Death, smallpox, and AIDS. The Spanish flu of 1918 was the deadliest ever epidemic, it killed 25-40 million people. The Black Death, which occurred in the 14th Century, killed over 20 million people, one third of Europe's population. Plant and animal life may also be affected by disease epidemics and pandemics.

Accidental Events
The definition of accident is at times very murky, an accident strictly speaking results from an unplanned failure, but the categorization of accidents depends on the observer of the event. Some "accidents" may be even intentionally created or at least considered as a possible result for the causer.

Biological and Systemic repercussions may bypass causality
We live in an ecosphere where a multitude of biological agents compete (and evolve) amongst themselves for resources and survival, our planet is a semi-closed system making all the biology therein highly dependent on each-other directly, like in a hunter-pray or symbiotic relation or simply dependent on the actions that other agents perform in the system.

An accident can be categorized of a biological nature if the cause is a biological process but most often the classification is also used to include any accident that affects the normal biological functions in a system and this makes if very difficult to distinguish for example a toxic accident from a biological one. Take for instance the recent issue regarding the decline of the population of domesticated bees, a 50% decline in the U.S and the E.U. at the start of 2013. It is at the same time a problem of toxic poisoning due to pesticide use and a biological one due to the genetic manipulation of crops both affecting the immune system of the bees and promoting the spread and lethality of natural occurring diseases, allied with the already depressed quality of the environment due to pollution and the rapidly altering weather patterns resulting from climate change. A problem so grave that there are concerns that it may even lead to the extinction of the species if not corrected.

Volcanic eruption
This natural disaster is caused by the eruption of a volcano, and eruptions come in many forms and have subsequent effects. They may range from daily small eruptions which occur in places; like Kilauea, in Hawaii, or extremely infrequent supervolcano eruptions in places like Lake Toba. They can geologically shape large geographic regions, alter river beds and impact climate and chemically alter the soil, water and atmospheric quality of areas.

Recent large volcanic eruptions include that of Mount St. Helens and Krakatoa, occurring in 1980 and 1883, respectively. While to a degree we can say the historic records of events of large scale are rare we must take in consideration that these are geological slow processes processes, and in that scale humanity has yet had very little chance be witness to the more larger events that we know to have and that will naturally occur. Wikipedia has maintains a [[w:list of large volcanic eruptions}}.

Lahar
A Lahar is a water, mud, rock and debris slide along rivers, caused by the sudden melting of a snow-capped volcano during, or as a consequence, of an eruption.

The eruption of the Volcán del Ruiz in Colombia produced massive lahars which ran down the rivers and creeks. One of these lahars jumped on a valley with a wave of 60 mt. (200 ft.)in height and struck the town of Armero in the night of November 13, 1985, causing the leveling of 80% of the town's buildings and houses. The death toll was estimated at 25,000 deaths, but recent estimates put the figure in 21,000 deaths. In a touch of irony, the graveyard of Armero was spared of destruction (Armero tragedy).

Super volcanoes
The Toba catastrophe theory that addresses the super-volcanic eruption that occurred about 75,000 years ago at the site of present-day Lake Toba in Indonesia, in what is so far one of the Earth's largest known eruptions. The erupted mass was 100 times greater than that of the largest volcanic eruption in recent history, including the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia, which caused the 1816 "Year Without a Summer" in the Northern Hemisphere. Toba's erupted mass deposited an ash layer of about 15 cm thick over the whole of South Asia. A blanket of volcanic ash was also deposited over the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the South China Sea. The theory holds that this event caused a global volcanic winter of six to ten years and possibly a 1,000-year-long cooling episode and points to the event as the cause of a genetic bottleneck that resulted from in a sharp decline in human population, supported by some genetic evidence that today's humans are descended from a very small population of between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs that existed about 70,000 years ago.

Limnic eruption
A sudden release of asphyxiating or inflammable gas from a lake. Three lakes are at risk of limnic eruptions, Lake Nyos, Lake Monoun, and Lake Kivu. A 1986 limnic eruption of 1.6 million tonnes of CO2 from Lake Nyos suffocated 1,800 people in a 20 mile radius. In 1984, a sudden out-gassing of CO2 had occurred at Lake Monoun, killing 37 local residents. Lake Kivu, with concentrations of methane and CO2, has not experienced a limnic eruption during recorded history, but is suspected of having periodic eruptions every 1,000 years.

Earth-quake
An earthquake is a sudden shift or movement in the tectonic plate in the Earth's crust. On the surface, this is manifested by a moving and shaking of the ground, and can be massively damaging to poorly built structures. The most powerful earthquakes can destroy even the best built of structures. In addition, they can trigger secondary disasters, such as tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Earthquakes occur along fault line, and are unpredictable. They are capable of killing hundreds of thousands of people, such as in the 1976 Tangshan and 2004 Indian Ocean earthquakes.

Tsunami
A tsunami ("harbor wave" in Japanese) is caused by seismic disturbances in the ocean. A common misconception is that tsunamis are simply very large waves, but this is incorrect. Instead, when one has reached land, it gives the appearance that the sea level has risen very rapidly. Tsunamis can flood areas and cause widespread devastation, often killing thousands of people. Tsunamis are commonly called tidal waves, a title discouraged by professional oceanographers because tsunamis are not related to ocean tides in any way.

Major solar flare
A solar flare is a violent explosion in the Sun's atmosphere with an energy equivalent to tens of millions of hydrogen bombs. Solar flares take place in the solar corona and chromosphere, heating the gas to tens of millions of kelvins and accelerating electrons, protons and heavier ions to near the speed of light. They produce electromagnetic radiation across the spectrum at all wavelengths from long-wave radio signals to the shortest wavelength gamma rays. Solar flare emissions are a danger to orbiting satellites, manned space missions, communications systems, and power grid systems.

Solar flares are common and there are no record of an event that would put life on earth in any considerate danger, that is not to say that they are innocuous. Human societies dependence on electricity, electronic devices and satellites have also made us more vulnerable to a social order collapse due to the disabling effect a strong solar flare would have in the infrastructure we now depend for day-to-day life.

One of the best know effect of solar flares is on the power supply networks, for instance Canada and Finland have added protective devices to their high voltage transformers just for that eventuality. It should be something that a national government should act upon since a nations energy infrastructure is of national security importance, even if in most nations energy is a private enterprise.

There is also a early warning system in place due to the effect solar flares have on satellites, so a major event should be public knowledge before it hits. In personal terms having taken the general steps discussed on Part 1 will suffice, unless the even is so great that the recovery time will erode the fabric of society.

EMP event
EMP events can occur only result of a EMP weapon discharge.

As with many other catastrophic events, an EMP attack or incident has been also the subject of books and other media, even video games. The computer-animated American science fiction television TV series from 2007 Afterworld covers Russell Shoemaker, the lead character, history across a devastated land, in the portrayed EMP event has not only cause all alternative current utilities to ceased function but has "disintegrated" a large part of the population. It covers interesting subjects like how humanity uses myths to explain away the unknown and permit to build order over a chaotic reality.

Nuclear event
The word today seems to be evolving beyond nuclear power and nuclear weapons, due to some hard realizations based on experiencing extreme destruction, pollution and the unreliability of the systems especially facing unexpected realities. Something has been learned and we have gone far beyond the bad propaganda from the pre-cold war age into the 21 century.

Nuclear radiation evokes fear and uncertainty, probably the more worrying characteristic is that it is unseen, carried by air and more damaging than virus since the effects can take extremely long time to dissipate and the effects to be noticed, if not in the immediate form of a radiation burn or severe poisoning.

This section will try to cover this subject by providing a short introduction to this important topic and address some of the confusion and even misinformation regarding radiation and radiation poisoning.

Radiation is a physical property of some natural occurring elements. Since matter is, simply put, made up of protons, electrons and neutrons.

The type of element is determined by the number of protons as the number of protons in for any element is fixed, electrons and neutrons vary within some limits. The number neutrons affects the stability of the atom, there is an optimal range of numbers of neutrons needed to keep the atom stable. When you have 2 atoms of the same element but with different number of neutrons they constitute an isotope of that element. If one of the atoms is unstable it then leads to alpha, beta-, beta+ or gamma decay.

One of the more problematic aspects of the lack of public information about radiation effects is the establishing of safety limits and of full disclosure of the dangers. This includes being transparent about contaminated sites, professions and the nuclear economy.

The rem is the most common unit of measure used to gauge radiation damage to human tissue. For instance the International Commission on Radiological Protection recommends evacuation from locations were radiation dose exceeds .1 rem per year. With an exposure of 100 rem or more one will get radiation illness (with similar effects to cancer patients that get radiation treatment, loss of hair, nausea and weakness). A dose of 250 to 350 rem will become life-threatening, if untreated chances of dying are approximately 50%.

Fission is a reaction commonly created in nuclear power stations where unstable isotopes of an element are created from splitting of atoms. Creating unstable isotopes will eventually decay the various decay processes.

Radioactive decay As we have seen there are several types of radioactive decay, each decay will emit:
 * alpha decay, means that the unstable atom emits a helium nuclei (composed of 2 neutrons and 2 protons) as it decays.
 * beta- decay, occurs for isotopes with an excess of neutrons, in seeking stability neutrons are converted into protons (thereby changing the element) this generates a releasing of electrons and other elementary particles, like neutrinos.
 * beta+ decay, may occur, if the atom has enough energy to overcome the mass difference between an proton and a neutron and when the atom nucleus has too few neutrons to remain stable, forcing a conversion of a proton into a neutron and a positron (negative charged electron) that will emit a neutrino.
 * gamma decay, is generally a result of a alpha or a beta decay. If the resulting atom is in an excited state, it can radiate a high energy photon to lose some of the excess energy.

Except from a massive solar flare or a pulsar ejection hitting the Earth most other natural ways of getting irradiated beyond normal ranges can only occur due to human action or some controlled activity or repeated exposure. The most probable deadly nuclear events are a nuclear war, terrorist attack, a nuclear facility accident or exposure to nuclear waste. In 2015 Spencer Wheatley and Didier Sornette at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and Benjamin Sovacool at Aarhus University in Denmark, having reportedly compiled the most comprehensive list of nuclear accidents until then calculate the chances of future accidents to be 50/50.

War
War is conflict, between relatively large groups of people, which involves physical force inflicted by the use of weapons. Warfare has destroyed entire cultures, countries, economies and inflicted great suffering on humanity. Other terms for war can include armed conflict, hostilities, and police action. Acts of war are normally excluded from insurance contracts and disaster planning. Most wars are caused when two political leaders have conflicts with each other's views. Civilians normally have no input on whether a war should be started.

Movies

Books

Terrorism
Terrorism is a controversial term with multiple definitions. One definition means a violent action targeting civilians exclusively. Another definition is the use or threatened use of violence for the purpose of creating fear in order to achieve a political, religious, or ideological goal. Under the second definition, the targets of terrorist acts can be anyone, including civilians, government officials, military personnel, or people serving the interests of governments.

Impact event
Impact events are caused by the collision of large meteoroids, asteroids or comets (generically: bolides) with Earth and may sometimes be followed by mass extinctions of life. The magnitude of the disaster is inversely proportional to its rate of occurrence, because small impactors are much more numerous than large ones. In 2010, 900 1Km asteroids had been cataloged in near heart space (in orbits around 0.983 and 1.3 AU away from the Sun).

This type of event is portrayed in many movies, TV shows and literary works. The TV series of 1999, from the UK, The Last Train, follows the survival of a mixed group of train passengers who have accidentally been cryogenically frozen. It covers items like famine due to ash cover (drop of temperature) and acid rain.

Gamma-ray burst
A gama-ray burst is a blast of gama radiation, the best known and common generators of such events are pulsars but any passing star cluster within a few thousand light years of Earth could generate a strong enough burst that would result in mass extinction of life on Earth. In fact it is theorized by a team from the University of Kansas in Lawrence led by Adrian Melott in 2003, that such an event may indeed have occurred 440 million years ago, even if so far no proof has been found, but little would be left to identify such event.

In star clusters, gama-ray bursts are generated when a single star explodes or two or more stellar corpses merge. In 2003, a team led by Adrian Melott of the suggested that a gamma-ray burst within a few thousand light years of Earth triggered a mass extinction 440 million years ago. But proof has been elusive. Because these bursts occur when, there is little left to identify the culprit.

A galactic gama-ray superwave can also be a possibility from a massive supernova. Recent discoveries made by Fermi Gamma Ray telescope increases the chance of Earth being hit in what is a recurrent phenomena.

According to Wilfried Domainko of the Max Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg, Germany (arxiv.org/abs/1112.1792), in globular clusters, massive swarm of active and dead start, the probability based on the number of star clusters in the Milky Way and the rate of gamma-ray bursts in them, that an deadly game-ray busts event will strike Earth is at least once in the past billion years.

The chance that a pulsar will cause damage to the earth is very remote but not inexistent, in fact it is almost a certainty that some pulsars will be targeting the earth from time to time, but because they are so distant little or no impact is felt.