User:Dan Polansky/COVID-19

What follows is to supplement other Wikimedia sources on the current COVID-19 pandemic. Another page is COVID-19/Dan Polansky.

Featured sections:,.

Extent of spread


Links:
 * Coronavirus maps and charts: A visual guide to the outbreak, bbc.com
 * Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports, who.int
 * Coronavirus Update (Live), worldometers.info - section "Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance", which includes green rows for recovered countries
 * 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak by country and territory, wikipedia.org
 * 2020 coronavirus outbreak in Europe, wikipedia.org

Flatten the curve
Discussion:
 * A: Containment is probably impossible. We would be better off without all the restrictive measures that cause economic harm and psychological harm.
 * B: Even if containment is impossible (an if), significant delay of spread is very much possible and gains us time to develop a vaccine and faster testing, expand capacity in hospitals, ramp up manufacturing of medical aids and to better prepare for more extensive spread in other ways. The containment measures are the same as spread delay measures.
 * C: Failure to delay infections and flatten the curve of infections is very likely to increase the death rate, in part by failure of the overflooded healthcare facilities to provide the intensive care required, e.g. breathing machines. The difference can be observed by comparing the nominal death rates of Italy and South Korea.
 * D: We have to distinguish between regions with low quantities of healthcare capacities and regions with high quantities. We have to look at the number of ICU beds per 100 000 inhabitans and the number of ventilators per 100 000 inhabitants; these vary vastly between regions. Furthermore, we have to reckon with different levels of air pollution and the associated susceptibility to lung diseases. And we must not confuse the exponential growth of confirmed cases due to exponential growth of tests with the exponential growth of real cases. Extrapolating from one region to another without making due considerations of these factors leads to gross misestimates.

Quotes:
 * “The people in our lives who are most at risk — seniors and those with underlying health conditions — are depending on all of us to make the right choice,” Newson said.



Links:
 * Coronavirus: South Korea's 'trace, test and treat' approach, bbc.com
 * Flattening the Coronavirus Curve, Mar 11, nytimes.com - has a great graphic
 * Coronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives', Mar 14, bbc.com
 * Britain goes it alone over coronavirus. We can only hope the gamble pays off, Mar 15, theguardian.com
 * Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017, April 21, 2017,cdc.gov - search for "FIGURE 1. Goals of community mitigation for pandemic influenza"

Refs:

Containment
Containment:
 * Some countries succeeded in containment so far..
 * High portion of experts says 60-70 procent of population becomes infected as long as there is no immunity against the virus, vaccination, and cure, says Merkel.

Refs:

Death rate
Death rate AKA case fatality rate:
 * The case fatality rate (CFR) is reported to be estimated at about 2%, that is, the statistical tendency is that of 100 infected persons, 2 die, but calculating the figure is fraught with problems.
 * "For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases)."
 * The rate of deaths to number of cases is about 3.4% globally as of Mar 06.
 * Breakdown: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths, worldometers.info
 * Pitfalls:
 * The reported case counts are probably an order-of-magnitude wrong as an indication of real cases for most countries, or even more..
 * The case counts, even if they were accurate, are counts of cases yet to develop while the death count is part of the closed cases; therefore, one would have to take the current death count and past case count. This pitfall goes in the other direction than the first pitfall.
 * The death rate depends on whether overload of healthcare system takes place, and therefore, a globally calculated death rate is too high for unoverloaded countries/regions and too low for overloaded countries/regions.
 * Deaths by the covid (caused by covid) would properly need to be distinguished from deaths with covid (covid-positive deaths with little or no covid contribution), and that seems often not done.

Links:
 * The Coronavirus’s Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home, Mar 21, nytimes.com

Refs:

War comparison
Comparing COVID-19 to war:
 * In World War II, total USSR sufferred 13.7% losses, in terms of per capita.
 * In World War II, the world sufferred about 3% losses.
 * In World War II, Czechoslovakia suffered 2.33% to 2.43% losses.
 * Compare that to 5% death rate that can arise in COVID-19 managed via overflooded healthcare system; if 50% of population gets infected, you get 2.5% losses across the whole population.

Discussion:
 * A: Where do you have that 5% death rate from? You cannot trust the raw nominal CFR and you cannot trust the preliminary studies on CFR. The above is very tentative.
 * B: What about other countries? What were the U.S. losses and the Polish losses in WWII?
 * C: Various countries suffer 1% deaths in a year, per List of sovereign states and dependent territories by mortality rate; that is, 1 in 100 persons dies in a year. For instance, in the U.S. there were 8.15 deaths per 1000 people per year in 2017, per the same source.

Spread rate
Spread rate AKA transmission rate:
 * The Ro is 1.5 - 3.5; it is the mean count of people that will be infected by a single infected person.
 * "The Ro for the common flu is 1.3 [...]"

The growth curve of the current COVID-19 epidemic:
 * The curve showing the number of active cases starts exponential, bd, where b is a base and d is the number of days elapsed. What limits the exponential growth is the increasing immunization of past cases and running out of population to infect further. What further limits the exponential growth are containment interventions.
 * The curve starting exponential can be verified by showing the time development on a logarithmic y-axis (e.g. for Italy, worldometers.info, click on "logarithmic") and seeing a straight line; any straight-line portion of such a graph that is not horizontal shows exponential growth with a fixed base, where different slopes of straight-line portions correspond to different base of the exponential growth.
 * Since the rate of change of an exponential function is again an exponential function (with the same base, but, in general, multiplied by a different constant factor), also the curve showing daily increases rather than daily totals is going to be exponential. Furthermore, for a death rate not changing in time, the daily deaths are going to be exponential as well; for increasing death rate, even worse.
 * If b is 1.2 and we follow 90 days, we get the following development of case totals, rounded to integers:
 * 1st 30 days: 1; 1; 1; 2; 2; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 7; 8; 10; 12; 15; 18; 22; 26; 31; 38; 46; 55; 66; 79; 95; 114; 137; 164; 197; 237
 * 2nd 30 days: 284; 341; 410; 492; 590; 708; 850; 1,020; 1,224; 1,469; 1,763; 2,116; 2,539; 3,047; 3,657; 4,388; 5,266; 6,319; 7,583; 9,100; 10,920; 13,104; 15,725; 18,870; 22,644; 27,173; 32,608; 39,130; 46,956; 56,347
 * 3rd 30 days: 67,617; 81,140; 97,368; 116,842; 140,210; 168,252; 201,903; 242,283; 290,740; 348,888; 418,666; 502,400; 602,880; 723,456; 868,147; 1,041,776; 1,250,132; 1,500,158; 1,800,190; 2,160,228; 2,592,274; 3,110,728; 3,732,874; 4,479,449; 5,375,339; 6,450,407; 7,740,489; 9,288,586; 11,146,304; 13,375,565.
 * That is, we end up with 13 million infected in 90 days.
 * The day on which the 1st case is confirmed in a region is the day on which to take drastic measures to contain the spread: the 1st confirmed case indicates very likely multiple real cases, and these are already too many to contain completely.
 * Late note: Wrong. Drastic measures are not necessarily the best option; one has to weigh their consequences in terms of health and lost lives, and in terms of impact of the economic consequences on the quality of life of the population at large in the years to come.
 * Late objection: The b of 1.2 is realistic for confirmed cases but not necessarily for true cases since we need to account for exponential growth of tests. Once the exponential growth of tests slows down, the growth of confirmed cases slows down as well.
 * Late objection 2: It is dangerous to present the lay reader with an example of an unlimited exponential growth, implying that it can last 90 days. The limitations were stated in the notes above, but that is not good enough. The above presentation was a mistaken idea.



Refs:

Links:
 * COVID-19-Pandemie, de.wikipedia.org - great bar charts near the top showing development of counts in time

Means of spread

 * Thought to be primarily via droplets caughed out or sneezed out.
 * Spread via surfaces is also considered.

Refs:

Pandemic potential
Pandemic potential:
 * Declared to be a pandemic by WHO.
 * OLD: Some authorities/experts indicate there is a pandemic potential, other authorities/experts there is already a pandemic.

Refs:

Test count
Count of tests performed per worldometers.info, Mar 9, top 5 from available data:
 * South Korea: 210,144 = 4,099 per million people
 * Italy: 60,761 = 1,005 per million people
 * UK: 26,261 = 387 per million people
 * Hong Kong: 16,000 = 2,134 per million people
 * France: 11,895 = 182 per million people

Czechia:
 * Czechia, Mar 12: 1816 = 170 per million people

Refs:

Test ease
Ease with which citizens can get tested:
 * South Korea makes it super easy for people to get tested..

Refs:

Test coverage
Test coverage and the relationship between the official case count and real case count:
 * In many countries, there are huge discrepancies between reported cases and true cases..
 * High test coverage may help combat the virus by keeing in check asymptomatic cases.

Refs:

Links:
 * Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), ourworldindata.org - search for "Current COVID-19 test coverage estimates"

Confirmed cases per capita
Top 100 confirmed cases per million people (cumulative, active or not), calculated from List of countries and dependencies by population and W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data on 2020-09-20 17:34 UTC: Qatar          44876 Bahrain        39248 Aruba          30818 Maldives       24972 Panama         24681 Peru           23382 Chile          22934 Kuwait         22272 San Marino     21498 Brazil         21350 United States  20778 Oman           20263 Israel         19349 Andorra        18544 Moldova        17647 Armenia        15751 Turks and Caicos Islands 15551 Colombia       15055 Vatican City   14545 Sint Maarten   14379 Argentina      13727 Spain          13522 Costa Rica     12465 Montenegro     12065 U.S. Virgin Islands 11780 Guam           11676 Luxembourg     11633 Bolivia        11215 South Africa   11063 Gibraltar      10388 Dominican Republic 10314 Singapore      10086 Saudi Arabia   9622 Cape Verde     9232 Sweden         8518 United Arab Emirates 8517 Belgium        8496 Kosovo         8326 Bahamas        8158 Faroe Islands  8141 Belarus        8043 Suriname       8022 North Macedonia 7974 Iraq           7860 Honduras       7646 Bosnia and Herzegovina 7588 Russia         7518 Ecuador        7063 Kyrgyzstan     6863 Palestine      6634 Ireland        6616 Portugal       6606 France         6588 Iceland        6291 United Kingdom 5902 Romania        5838 Puerto Rico    5715 Kazakhstan     5704 Switzerland    5661 Mexico         5431 Netherlands    5142 Malta          5118 Guatemala      5051 Iran           5037 Italy          4934 Djibouti       4867 Serbia         4750 Eswatini       4748 Paraguay       4552 Monaco         4488 Czech Republic 4419 Albania        4351 French Polynesia 4342 Sao Tome and Principe 4318 Austria        4272 Ukraine        4208 Lebanon        4145 Namibia        4143 El Salvador    4072 Isle of Man    4068 Falkland Islands 4065 Guernsey       4014 Libya          3963 India          3949 Gabon          3887 Azerbaijan     3867 Denmark        3750 Canada         3739 Croatia        3677 Belize         3664 Jersey         3645 Turkey         3642 Equatorial Guinea 3436 Germany        3261 Cayman Islands 2975 Liechtenstein  2890 Trinidad and Tobago 2824 Bermuda        2778 Morocco        2771 Guyana         2754 Disclaimer: The script doing the calculation, at W:User talk:Dan Polansky, is not peer reviewed. One source of error may be that a country or region is skipped altogether during the data extraction.

Data quality: The confirmed cases are very likely to have hugely varying relation to actual cases, depending on test coverage.

Deaths per capita
Top 100 covid-positive (maybe covid-caused in some countries) deaths per million inhabitants, calculated from List of countries and dependencies by population and W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data on 2020-09-20 17:34 UTC: San Marino     1248 Peru           961 Belgium        862 Andorra        683 Bolivia        652 Spain          644 Brazil         644 Chile          631 Ecuador        628 United Kingdom 625 United States  613 Italy          594 Mexico         573 Sweden         566 Panama         525 Sint Maarten   492 Colombia       477 France         466 Moldova        456 Ireland        360 Netherlands    358 Kosovo         337 North Macedonia 332 Armenia        312 Jersey         297 Iran           290 Isle of Man    288 Argentina      282 South Africa   267 Canada         241 Honduras       233 Romania        230 Bosnia and Herzegovina 229 Iraq           211 Montenegro     207 Guernsey       205 Aruba          205 Switzerland    204 Montserrat     200 Luxembourg     198 Dominican Republic 196 Portugal       184 Guatemala      184 U.S. Virgin Islands 182 Oman           181 Puerto Rico    178 Bahamas        177 Guam           168 Suriname       165 Kyrgyzstan     162 Bermuda        141 Costa Rica     138 Bahrain        136 Russia         132 Kuwait         131 Saudi Arabia   130 Israel         129 Albania        127 El Salvador    120 Turks and Caicos Islands 116 Germany        114 Denmark        109 Serbia         107 Bulgaria       106 Eswatini       94.2 Turkey         90.3 Cape Verde     89.8 Kazakhstan     89 Paraguay       87.7 Maldives       86.1 Austria        85.9 Ukraine        85.2 Belarus        82.9 Guyana         81.3 Qatar          76.4 Sao Tome and Principe 71.3 Hungary        69.9 Slovenia       64.4 India          63.4 Libya          62.6 Finland        61.6 Croatia        61.1 Poland         59.8 Equatorial Guinea 57.1 Egypt          57 Azerbaijan     56.9 Djibouti       55 Morocco        49.8 Norway         49.7 Estonia        48.2 Palestine      47.8 Czech Republic 46.6 Philippines    45.6 Belize         45.3 Trinidad and Tobago 44.7 Namibia        44.7 Gambia         44.7 Afghanistan    43.7 Lebanon        41.9 United Arab Emirates 40.8 Disclaimer: The script doing the calculation, at W:User talk:Dan Polansky, is not peer reviewed. One source of error may be that a country or region is skipped altogether during the data extraction.

As an additional data set, deaths per million inhabitants in Chinese provinces calculated from W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data/China medical cases by province, where the template was last updated on 2020-03-18: Hubei          52.9 Hainan         0.6 Beijing        0.364 Heilongjiang   0.342 Henan          0.229 Chongqing      0.2 Tianjin        0.188 Shanghai       0.125 Xinjiang       0.12 Anhui          0.0952 Hebei          0.08 Shaanxi        0.0789 Gansu          0.0769 Guangdong      0.0714 Shandong       0.07 Hunan          0.058 Guizhou        0.0556 Yunnan         0.0417 Guangxi        0.0408 Inner Mongolia 0.04 Jilin          0.037 Sichuan        0.0361 Fujian         0.0256 Liaoning       0.0227 Jiangxi        0.0217 Zhejiang       0.0175 Jiangsu        0 Tibet          0 Qinghai        0 Ningxia        0 Shanxi         0

Deaths per million inhabitants for Wuhan calculated from W:Template:2020 coronavirus quarantines: Wuhan          349

Deaths per million inhabitants for Italian regions calculated from Pandemia di COVID-19 del 2020 in Italia and Regione (Italia): Lombardia      1683 Valle d'Aosta  1162 Liguria        1022 Emilia-Romagna 1002 Piemonte       953 Trentino-Alto Adige 650 Marche         648 Veneto         439 Abruzzo        361 Toscana        309 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 287 Lazio          151 Puglia         143 Umbria         93 Sardegna       86 Campania       78.4 Molise         75.3 Sicilia        59.2 Calabria       50.3 Basilicata     49.7

On breakdown into regions: If the objective is to get an impression of how bad things can get if the covid is let completely unchecked, it is key to look at the region level, e.g. Lombardia instead of the whole Italy, or Wuhan instead of the whole Hubei or even the whole China. In general, things can possibly get even worse in the unchecked scenario since Lombardia did not let covid completely unchecked, and nor did Wuhan.

Deaths in context
Total covid-positive (not covid-caused) deaths from W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data alongside 2017 average daily deaths calculated from annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause.csv obtained from ourworldindata.org, 2020-09-20 17:34 UTC:

Region    Covid-Positive Deaths  2017 Avg Daily Deaths   Ratio Abkhazia                      7        N/A Afghanistan                1437        549       2.62 Albania                     362         58       6.24 Algeria                    1665        436       3.82 Andorra                      53          1      53.00 Angola                      147        470       0.31 Anguilla                      0        N/A Antigua and Barbuda           3          1       3.00 Argentina                 12799        881      14.53 Armenia                     925         78      11.86 Artsakh                       2        N/A Aruba                        23        N/A Australia                   849        445       1.91 Austria                     766        217       3.53 Azerbaijan                  574        207       2.77 Bahamas                      69          7       9.86 Bahrain                     216          9      24.00 Bangladesh                 4939       2319       2.13 Barbados                      7          7       1.00 Belarus                     780        330       2.36 Belgium                    9936        285      34.86 Belize                       19          5       3.80 Benin                        40        201       0.20 Bermuda                       9          1       9.00 Bhutan                        0         11       0.00 Bolivia                    7586        175      43.35 Bonaire                       1        N/A Bosnia and Herzegovina      752        101       7.45 Botswana                     11         38       0.29 Brazil                   136532       3528      38.70 British Virgin Islands        1        N/A Brunei                        3          5       0.60 Bulgaria                    734        295       2.49 Burkina Faso                 55        444       0.12 Burundi                       1        210       0.00 Cambodia                      0        275       0.00 Cameroon                    415        492       0.84 Canada                     9211        730      12.62 Cape Verde                   50          8       6.25 Cayman Islands                1        N/A Central African Republic     62        163       0.38 Chad                         81        373       0.22 Charles de Gaulle             0        N/A Chile                     12286        304      40.41 China                      4634      28036       0.17 Colombia                  24039        615      39.09 Comoros                       7         11       0.64 Congo                        88         99       0.89 Coral Princess                3        N/A Costa Atlantica               0        N/A Costa Rica                  706         63      11.21 Croatia                     248        137       1.81 Cuba                        111        268       0.41 Curaçao                      1        N/A Cyprus                       22         20       1.10 Czech Republic              499        298       1.67 DR Congo                    268        N/A Denmark                     635        143       4.44 Diamond Princess             14        N/A Djibouti                     61         16       3.81 Dominica                      0          2       0.00 Dominican Republic         2044        178      11.48 Donetsk PR                  163        N/A East Timor                    0        N/A Ecuador                   11044        234      47.20 Egypt                      5750       1421       4.05 El Salvador                 811        113       7.18 Equatorial Guinea            83         19       4.37 Eritrea                       0        109       0.00 Estonia                      64         42       1.52 Eswatini                    103        N/A Ethiopia                   1089       1352       0.81 Falkland Islands              0        N/A Faroe Islands                 0        N/A Fiji                          2         19       0.11 Finland                     339        146       2.32 France                    31274       1508      20.74 French Polynesia              2        N/A Gabon                        53         29       1.83 Gambia                      108         34       3.18 Georgia                      19        139       0.14 Germany                    9464       2528       3.74 Ghana                       297        517       0.57 Gibraltar                     0        N/A Greece                      313        324       0.97 Greenland                     0          1       0.00 Greg Mortimer                 1        N/A Grenada                       0          3       0.00 Guam                         29          3       9.67 Guatemala                  3105        243      12.78 Guernsey                     13        N/A Guinea                       63        272       0.23 Guinea-Bissau                39         37       1.05 Guyana                       64         15       4.27 HNLMS Dolfijn                 0        N/A Haiti                       221        225       0.98 Honduras                   2166        120      18.05 Hong Kong                   103        N/A Hungary                     683        332       2.06 Iceland                      10          6       1.67 India                     86752      25270       3.43 Indonesia                  9553       4465       2.14 Iran                      24301        993      24.47 Iraq                       8491        393      21.61 Ireland                    1792         81      22.12 Isle of Man                  24        N/A Israel                     1196        119      10.05 Italy                     35692       1667      21.41 Ivory Coast                 120        468       0.26 Jamaica                      58         53       1.09 Japan                      1500       3689       0.41 Jersey                       32        N/A Jordan                       30         69       0.43 Kazakhstan                 1671        373       4.48 Kenya                       642        752       0.85 Kosovo                      601          0        nan Kuwait                      584         20      29.20 Kyrgyzstan                 1063         94      11.31 Laos                          0        119       0.00 Latvia                       36         76       0.47 Lebanon                     286         90       3.18 Lesotho                      33         67       0.49 Liberia                      82         76       1.08 Libya                       430         90       4.78 Liechtenstein                 1        N/A Lithuania                    87        111       0.78 Luhansk PR                   17        N/A Luxembourg                  124         12      10.33 MS Zaandam                    4        N/A Macau                         0        N/A Madagascar                  215        490       0.44 Malawi                      179        327       0.55 Malaysia                    130        426       0.31 Maldives                     33          3      11.00 Mali                        128        453       0.28 Malta                        17         10       1.70 Mauritania                  160         51       3.14 Mauritius                    10         28       0.36 Mexico                    73258       1936      37.84 Moldova                    1203        119      10.11 Monaco                        1        N/A Mongolia                      0         59       0.00 Montenegro                  129         18       7.17 Montserrat                    1        N/A Morocco                    1795        583       3.08 Mozambique                   39        648       0.06 Myanmar                      89       1078       0.08 Namibia                     112         46       2.43 Nepal                       411        477       0.86 Netherlands                6273        393      15.96 New Caledonia                 0        N/A New Zealand                  25         85       0.29 Nicaragua                   147         63       2.33 Niger                        69        426       0.16 Nigeria                    1094       4044       0.27 North Macedonia             689        N/A Northern Cyprus               4        N/A Northern Mariana Islands      2          1       2.00 Norway                      267        107       2.50 Oman                        818         29      28.21 Pakistan                   6416       3694       1.74 Palestine                   244         37       6.59 Panama                     2247         50      44.94 Papua New Guinea              6        216       0.03 Paraguay                    636         86       7.40 Peru                      31369        376      83.43 Philippines                4984       1747       2.85 Poland                     2293       1064       2.16 Portugal                   1899        304       6.25 Puerto Rico                 570         92       6.20 Qatar                       210          9      23.33 Romania                    4435        728       6.09 Russia                    19418       5013       3.87 Rwanda                       22        178       0.12 Saba                          0        N/A Sahrawi Arab DR               2        N/A Saint Kitts and Nevis         0        N/A Saint Lucia                   0          3       0.00 Saint Pierre and Miquelon     0        N/A Saint Vincent                 0        N/A San Marino                   42        N/A Sao Tome and Principe        15          3       5.00 Saudi Arabia               4458        242      18.42 Senegal                     302        220       1.37 Serbia                      741        336       2.21 Seychelles                    0          2       0.00 Sierra Leone                 72        182       0.40 Singapore                    27         53       0.51 Sint Eustatius                0        N/A Sint Maarten                 20        N/A Slovakia                     39        143       0.27 Slovenia                    135         53       2.55 Somalia                      98        342       0.29 Somaliland                   31        N/A South Africa              15940       1263      12.62 South Korea                 383        811       0.47 South Ossetia                 0        N/A South Sudan                  49        243       0.20 Spain                     30495       1107      27.55 Sri Lanka                    13        333       0.04 Sudan                       836        506       1.65 Suriname                     97         11       8.82 Sweden                     5865        241      24.34 Switzerland                1762        168      10.49 Syria                       170        312       0.54 Taiwan                        7        485       0.01 Tajikistan                   73        126       0.58 Thailand                     59       1244       0.05 Togo                         41        127       0.32 Trinidad and Tobago          61         30       2.03 Tunisia                     133        178       0.75 Turkey                     7506       1053       7.13 Turks and Caicos Islands      5        N/A U.S. Virgin Islands          19        N/A USS Theodore Roosevelt        1        N/A Uganda                       58        582       0.10 Ukraine                    3557       1903       1.87 United Arab Emirates        404         66       6.12 United Kingdom            41777       1597      26.16 United States            202409       7564      26.76 Uruguay                      46         87       0.53 Uzbekistan                  429        570       0.75 Vatican City                  0        N/A Venezuela                   530        453       1.17 Vietnam                      35       1598       0.02 Yemen                       585        420       1.39 Zambia                      324        310       1.05 Zimbabwe                    224        314       0.71

Deaths per total confirmed cases
Total covid-positive deaths per total covid-confirmed cases, calculated from List of countries and dependencies by population on 2020-09-20 17:34 UTC, ignoring regions with less than 100 confirmed cases and regions with zero deaths (this is not the actual case fatality rate properly obtained by random sampling, and may differ 10 or even 100 times from it):

Yemen          0.29 Italy          0.12 United Kingdom 0.11 Mexico         0.11 Belgium        0.1 Ecuador        0.089 Jersey         0.081 Chad           0.075 Isle of Man    0.071 France         0.071 Netherlands    0.07 Sweden         0.066 Canada         0.065 Liberia        0.062 Sudan          0.062 Niger          0.058 Bolivia        0.058 San Marino     0.058 Iran           0.058 Donetsk PR     0.057 Egypt          0.056 Ireland        0.054 China          0.054 Guernsey       0.051 Bermuda        0.051 Spain          0.048 Syria          0.045 Mali           0.044 North Macedonia 0.042 Peru           0.041 Kosovo         0.041 Bulgaria       0.04 Romania        0.039 Indonesia      0.039 Barbados       0.038 Finland        0.038 Hungary        0.038 Burkina Faso   0.038 Angola         0.038 Afghanistan    0.037 Andorra        0.037 Guatemala      0.036 Switzerland    0.036 Slovenia       0.035 Germany        0.035 Somaliland     0.034 Sint Maarten   0.034 Algeria        0.034 Sierra Leone   0.033 Vietnam        0.033 Colombia       0.032 Australia      0.032 Malawi         0.031 Puerto Rico    0.031 Gambia         0.031 Honduras       0.03 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.03 Brazil         0.03 Nicaragua      0.03 Zimbabwe       0.03 Guyana         0.03 United States  0.029 El Salvador    0.029 Albania        0.029 Denmark        0.029 Poland         0.029 Somalia        0.029 Mauritius      0.028 Portugal       0.028 Chile          0.028 Iraq           0.027 Lesotho        0.027 Moldova        0.026 Haiti          0.026 DR Congo       0.026 Togo           0.025 Turkey         0.025 South Africa   0.024 Uruguay        0.024 Latvia         0.024 Kyrgyzstan     0.024 Zambia         0.023 Lithuania      0.023 Luhansk PR     0.023 Greece         0.023 Serbia         0.023 Mauritania     0.022 Cuba           0.022 Estonia        0.022 Bahamas        0.022 Panama         0.021 Pakistan       0.021 Norway         0.021 Cameroon       0.021 Brunei         0.021 Suriname       0.021 Senegal        0.021 Hong Kong      0.021 Argentina      0.021 Ukraine        0.02 Austria        0.02 Eswatini       0.02 Armenia        0.02 Diamond Princess 0.02 Paraguay       0.019 Nigeria        0.019 Japan          0.019 Dominican Republic 0.019 South Sudan    0.019 Morocco        0.018 Congo          0.018 Russia         0.018 Kenya          0.018 Benin          0.018 Philippines    0.017 Montenegro     0.017 Guinea-Bissau  0.017 New Zealand    0.017 Luxembourg     0.017 Myanmar        0.017 Thailand       0.017 South Korea    0.017 Croatia        0.017 Equatorial Guinea 0.017 Sao Tome and Principe 0.017 India          0.016 Ethiopia       0.016 Trinidad and Tobago 0.016 Libya          0.016 Kazakhstan     0.016 Tunisia        0.016 U.S. Virgin Islands 0.015 Comoros        0.015 Azerbaijan     0.015 Cyprus         0.014 Guam           0.014 Bangladesh     0.014 Taiwan         0.014 Madagascar     0.014 Saudi Arabia   0.014 Central African Republic 0.013 Malaysia       0.013 Belize         0.012 Jamaica        0.012 Papua New Guinea 0.012 Uganda         0.011 Djibouti       0.011 Costa Rica     0.011 Namibia        0.011 Czech Republic 0.011 Abkhazia       0.01 Belarus        0.01 Lebanon        0.01 Cape Verde     0.0097 Botswana       0.0095 Liechtenstein  0.0089 Oman           0.0089 Uzbekistan     0.0084 Venezuela      0.0081 Tajikistan     0.008 Greg Mortimer  0.0078 Turks and Caicos Islands 0.0075 Palestine      0.0072 Israel         0.0067 Aruba          0.0066 Jordan         0.0066 Mozambique     0.0065 Ghana          0.0065 Malta          0.0065 Nepal          0.0064 Ivory Coast    0.0063 Guinea         0.0062 Gabon          0.0061 Slovakia       0.006 Artsakh        0.0059 Kuwait         0.0059 Monaco         0.0058 Northern Cyprus 0.0058 Georgia        0.0057 Cayman Islands 0.0048 United Arab Emirates 0.0048 Rwanda         0.0048 Iceland        0.0043 Curaçao       0.004 Sri Lanka      0.004 Bahrain        0.0035 Maldives       0.0034 Burundi        0.0021 Qatar          0.0017 French Polynesia 0.0017 USS Theodore Roosevelt 0.00091 Singapore      0.00047

Deaths per total confirmed cases in Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna calculated from Pandemia di COVID-19 del 2020 in Italia on 2020-05-01 17:17 UTC: Lombardia      0.181 Emilia-Romagna 0.139

Data interpretation and caution: The above result stems from at least the following factors: Incomplete detection impacts both confirmed cases and deaths, but arguably, it impacts much more the confirmed cases (in general) since deaths are preceded by health problems and these give impulse for testing. Since different countries have different degree of case testing and post-mortem testing, the calculated ratios listed above are not directly comparable between countries and are given only to provide a very first rough idea.
 * 1) Incomplete detection via incomplete testing
 * 2) Deaths due to covid vs. deaths with covid (covid-positive in both cases)
 * 3) True covid case fatality rate.

Healthcare system overload
Too many active cases per million people can overload the healthcare system, as happened in Wuhan and Italy, leading to drastically increased deaths per one thousand infected. Furthermore, there are second-order phenonema: the capacity of the system is further reduced by doctors and nurses becoming sick themselves and no longer supporting the patients.

Alas, see also COVID-19/Dan Polansky.

Links:
 * The end of China’s epidemic may be in sight, but Italy’s is surging, Mar 19, nytimes.com
 * The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors, March 11, theatlantic.com
 * The demand for inpatient and ICU beds for COVID-19 in the US: lessons from Chinese cities, 2020, medrxiv.org
 * Italy, Pandemic’s New Epicenter, Has Lessons for the World, Mar 21, nytimes.com

ICU beds and ventilators
The number of ICU beds and ventilators (artificial ventilation machines) per inhabitant varies between countries.

ICU beds per 100 000 capita:
 * Czechia:
 * 11.6 per a 2012 source
 * 42 per multiple sources probably tracing back to one source; there are 4450 ICU beds
 * Germany: 29.2 per a 2012 source
 * Italy: 12.5 per a 2012 source
 * Lombardy: 7 based on 720 pre-covid beds at "85% to 90% occupancy during the winter months"
 * China: 3.6 per forbes article
 * New York City: 19 based on 1,600 ICU beds and 8,4 million inhabitants.

Some ventilator counts:
 * Germany has 25,000 ventilators and ordered additional 10,000 ones.
 * Israel has 4000 ventilators.
 * UK ordered 10,000 ventilators ; UK has 5000 or 8000 ventilators per the two sources used by the Wikipedia template.
 * Czechia has about 3500 ventilators ; or 2080 ICU beds with ventilators
 * South Korea has about 9800 ventilators per W:Template:Hospital beds by country.
 * Italy has 3000 ventilators per the source used by the Wikipedia template.

Ventilator counts per 100 000 capita using the above and List of countries and dependencies by population:
 * Czechia:
 * 32; but it has 11.6 ICU-CCB beds per 100 000 capita: is this combination of numbers possible?
 * 19; per different source, there are 4450 ICU beds, of which 2080 have ventilators. That yields 19 vents per 1E5 capita and 42 ICU beds per 1E5 capita.
 * Israel: 44
 * Italy: 5
 * South Korea: 19
 * UK: 10
 * Germany: 30

The ratio of confirmed cases needing an ICU bed to those needing hospitalization:
 * Czechia: less than 20% of covid-hospitalized need an ICU bed, per an aggregate of a table in mzcr.cz source.
 * Lombardy: about 16% of covid-hospitalized patients needed an ICU bed.

Links:
 * W:Template:Hospital beds by country -- has ICU bed counts per capita, per country; has ventilator total counts per country but incomplete

Refs:

Protection
Protection of self and others per BBC: Protection of self and others per Swiss BAG:
 * Wash your hands for about 20 s with soap and hot water or use sanitizer gel.
 * Use a tissue for caughs; if you don't have tissue, use your sleeve.
 * Avoid touching face.
 * Avoid close contact with people who are unwell.
 * Keep distance from other people, especially elderly.
 * Thoroughly wash your hands.
 * Do not greet by shaking hands.
 * When you caugh, do so into a handkerchief or the arm.
 * If you have fever and caugh, stay at home.
 * Personally visit a doctor or emergency department only after an agreement via phone.

Face masks
Some countries order or recommend citizens to wear face masks.

Links:
 * How to Make a Face Mask, Joann Fabric and Craft Stores at youtube.com -- sewing required
 * Jak ušít roušku, která opravdu sedí - návod, Tvůrci v praxi at youtube.com -- sewing required

Teleworking
Home office (work from home):
 * Prague branch of Nestlé makes work from home mandatory for some employees
 * Google does something
 * Twitter does something
 * Microsoft does something
 * Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft do something
 * European parliament does something
 * China did a lot

Refs:

Travel restrictions
Travel bans:
 * U.S. banned entry for U.S. non-citizens who have been recently in China
 * Czechia banned all direct flights from China to all international airports in Czechia.
 * Australia banned travel from China on 1 February.
 * "Israel is banning the entry of foreign nationals who have been in China, Thailand, Singapore, Japan and South Korea over the last two weeks."
 * Israel banned entry from Italy to Israeli non-citizens.

Flight bans:
 * Lufthansa canceled flights to mainland China until Mar 28.
 * Over 20 airlines cancelled all China flights ; many other airlines cancelled some China flights.

Links:
 * Travel Restrictions on China due to COVID-19, thinkglobalhealth.org - shows travel restrictions as a map and as a list
 * Which countries currently have coronavirus travel restrictions in place?, theguardian.com

Refs:

Shutting schools
Shutting schools at some level of education:
 * Czechia does and Slovakia does
 * Italy does
 * Ireland does
 * etc.

Links:
 * COVID-19 Educational Disruption and Response, unesco.org

Refs:

Other shutdowns
Shutdowns other than travel and schools:
 * Czech government issued nationwide quarantine on Mar 16..
 * Czechia closed all shops except for food stores, pharmacies, and some other exceptions.
 * Bavaria ordered a partial lockdown.
 * France ordered a shutdown.
 * "Italy is to close all shops except food stores and pharmacies in Europe's toughest lockdown yet as virus deaths and cases continue to mount. [...] bars, restaurants, hairdressers and non-essential company departments would also close."
 * Spain ordered a shutdown.
 * Multiple U.S. states ordered a shutdown.

Refs:

Shutdown effect delay
According to a chart from Journal of the American Medical Association, China made shutdown of Wuhan on Jan 23 and daily confirmed cases peaked on Feb 4; source found via a Tomas Pueyo article
 * Point: That is 12 days later. The effect on real daily new cases was pretty immediate but it showed up as a peak in the measured daily new cases with about 12 day delay.

Discussion
Discussion 1:
 * A: More people die from common flu than from covid-19. What's the deal about covid-19?
 * B: If covid-19 becomes as widespread as common flu, many more people will be dying from it than from common flu, as per . Attempted containment is very much worthwhile
 * C: As for "Attempted containment is very much worthwhile", that statement is so vague as to be nearly meaningless. What kind of containment are we talking about and what is the price we are considering to pay? Zero intervention fails to prevent deaths; strong intervention may prevent some deaths while causing other deaths. Proper quantitative analysis is required.

Czechia
Czechia, aka Czech Republic, implemented multiple measures against the covid.

Links:
 * Pandemie COVID-19 v Česku, wikipedia.org
 * COVID-19: Přehled aktuální situace v ČR, mzcr.cz
 * Czech Republic goes into quarantine to slow down coronavirus spread, Mar 16, radio.cz
 * Shrnuto: jaká opatření nařídila česká vláda v boji proti šíření nákazy koronaviru?, ihned.cz

Videos
Videos:
 * Coronavirus: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO), Mar 1, 2020, youtube.com
 * Coronavirus outbreak: Canadian WHO doctor returns from China with critical COVID-19 lessons, Mar 5, 2020, youtube.com

Posters
Posters:

Links
Featured links:
 * Coronavirus Update (Live), worldometers.info - great graphs and other goodies; later: the graphs show exponentially growing cases and deaths without at the same time showing exponentially growing test counts: defect
 * Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now by Tomas Pueyo, Mar 10, medium.com - Later: Pueyo lacks the expertise, but more importantly, he does not account for test count growth, and confuses the confirmed case growth with real case growth. He has fooled many.
 * Facts about Covid-19 - Swiss Propaganda Research, swprs.org

More links:
 * Coronavirus maps and charts: A visual guide to the outbreak, bbc.com
 * 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak, wikipedia.org
 * Timeline of the 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak in February 2020, wikipedia.org
 * Commons:Category:Maps about the 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak, commons.wikimedia.org
 * COVID-19: informace pro občany, mzcr.cz
 * Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports, who.int


 * Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), ourworldindata.org
 * Roušky a kritické myšlení #RouškyVšem (Petr Ludwig), youtube.com
 * Velký manuál ke koronaviru od expertů z Bulovky: co víme, proč zůstat doma a jak se ochránit, Mar 17, lidovky.cz
 * Which Country Has Flattened the Curve for the Coronavirus?, Mar 19, nytimes.com - a huge number of graphs for many countries next to each other