Transportation Planning Casebook/Melbourne Orbital Rail

Summary


The Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop (SRL), also known as Melbourne Orbital Rail, is a proposed 90km-long orbital railway network. Estimated to take over 25 years and cost more than AUD$50 billion, the project is expected to become Melbourne's busiest standalone line upon completion.

The SRL comprises three sections: SRL East from Cheltenham to Box Hill, SRL North from Box Hill to Melbourne Airport, and SRL West from Melbourne Airport to Werribee. The 90km loop will connect every major rail line from the Frankston line to the Werribee line, via the airport, enhancing access to jobs, retail, education, health services, and other amenities. Three transport super hubs at Clayton, Broadmeadows, and Sunshine will connect regional services, allowing passengers outside Melbourne to reach suburban employment, hospitals, and universities without passing through the CBD. The project aims to alleviate congestion and reduce pressure on the existing transport network, creating up to 20,000 jobs during construction. The Suburban Rail Loop also presents an opportunity to plan for services, amenities, and infrastructure outside the central business district (CBD) for future generations.

The Suburban Rail Loop Authority (SLRA), established under the Department of Transport in September 2019, is responsible for the project's planning and development. The Government of Victoria opened the registration of interest (ROI) process for the project in June 2019. Construction will occur in several stages, with completion scheduled for 2050. The first stage, SRL East, will combine tunnel and surface rail and include:


 * Twin 26-kilometre rail tunnels.
 * Six new underground stations, including four interchanges at existing stations (Cheltenham, Clayton, Glen Waverley, and Box Hill) and new stations at Monash and Burwood.
 * A transport super hub at Clayton for regional passengers.
 * A train stabling facility and power supply substation at Heatherton.
 * An emergency support facility at Mount Waverley, including an intervention and ventilation facility and backup control center.
 * A power supply substation at Burwood.
 * A dedicated fleet of new high-tech trains.

Preparation for SRL East's construction is well underway, with hundreds of geotechnical investigations, boreholes, and land surveys completed to inform planning and development

Existing Melbourne Railway Network


The map to the right highlights the radial nature of Melbourne's existing suburban rail network.

The heavy rail network can be identified by lines with designated stations (red dots) while the tram network (light rail) is show by thinner lines without stations.

SRL North
As at May 3rd, 2022 the detailed route and station designs for SRL North had not been released.

SRL West
As at May 3rd, 2022 the detailed route and station designs for SRL West had not been released.

Prohibitive Cost
In late August 2018, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews proposed a $50 billion suburban rail loop connecting all major rail lines from east to west via Melbourne Airport. Due for completion in 2050. As the first phase of the SRL project, SRL East is expected to cost between $30.0 to $34.5 billion with the standalone line planned to be running by 2035. $2.5 billion was provided by the Victorian Government for planning and development of SRL and for Initial and Early Works on SRL East. In addition, The Victorian Government provided a further $9.3 billion for SRL East in late 2021.

SRL project is extremely expensive both in terms of time and cost. The initial budget was a staggering $50 billion, so the plausibility and practicality of SRL was questioned by many experts. The Grattan Institute's transport and cities program director Marion Terrill said she had concerns about the Government's lack of transparency. She also warned that mega projects like the Suburban Rail Loop had a greater risk of cost blow outs. Considering that SRL is a complex mega project and lacks specific follow-up data support, cost overruns are prone to occur. The rail loop’s benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) can not be guaranteed and taxpayers should expect higher returns from what is the largest infrastructure project ever conceived by a state government, especially given the multibillion-dollar cost blowouts facing other major builds.

Lack of Financial Support
The SRL cost is initially estimated to be above 50 billion, and the main financing and financing (F&F) strategies are:


 * Victorian Government funding (state budget)


 * Australian Government funding (Federal funding)


 * New value capture arrangements, including state-backed land development proceeds.

In the SRL project, the cost-benefit ratio (BCR) was calculated using unconventional parameter calculations and the lack of traffic and economic planning in the business case. At the same time, considering the lack of engineer reports and subsequent detailed budget analysis, the federal government cannot provide financial support for the project. So the Victorian government may face huge financial pressure.

Worries of Social and Environmental Impact of Construction
The current SRL East project will inevitably lead to a number of environmental and social issues as its route passes through densely populated areas in Melbourne's east. Although a substantial portion of the route would be built underground, prolonged construction would cause noise, vibration and pollution problems to surrounding residents.

Follow-up Execution Issue
Since the SRL project is a multi-decade mega-project, it can not be completed during the Daniel Andrews term of office. Considering the financial cost and time cost, as well as possibility of different governance strategies, it is difficult to guarantee that the subsequent government can continue to promote the construction of the SRL project.

How to Integrate with The Existing Transport System
In addition to operating as a standalone line, the SRL is also designed to connect passengers to existing lines. This means waiting times need to be minimized. In order to better integrate into the existing traffic system, the frequency of SRL is worth discussing whether the car of SRL is compatible with the existing rail system. Easy interchange to other rail, tram and bus lines is also important alongside high frequencies.

Melbourne Orbital Rail Construction Stages
Areas connected by SRL include: Cheltenham, Clayton, Monash, Glen Waverley, Burwood, Box Hill, Doncaster, Heidelberg, Bundoora, Reservoir, Faulkner, Broadmay Doss, Melbourne Airport, Sunshine and Werribee.

As well as providing rail links to the airport, the project will create three "transportation super-hubs" in Clayton, Broadmeadows and Sunshine City, connecting regional passengers to the Melbourne Rail Rail Link.

Given the size of the railway loop, construction will be completed within a few decades. One is to build the eastern and northern sections of the southern line. The Western Section will be planned and constructed in conjunction with the Melbourne Metro Tunnel, the Melbourne Airport Rail Link and the Western Section Rail Scheme.

The initial cost of SRL East and North is between $30 billion and $55 billion. At this time, a timetable and estimated cost to complete SRL West has not been provided.

The first stage of the suburban rail loop - SRL East - is a 26km metro corridor between Cheltenham in the south and Box Hill in the north. The line will include six stations, including new interchanges with existing heavy rail stations in Cheltenham, Clayton, Glen Waverley and Box Hill, as well as new stations in Monash and Burwood. Clayton's new overpass will serve as a "transportation super-hub" connecting regional passengers to the railroad loop.

Six subway stations will be located between 17 and 23 meters below the street and will be built in a "bottom-up" fashion. The entrance location will be close to the existing train station and central facilities

Financing
The suburban rail loop project is expected to cost A$50 billion ($34 billion). The project has been awarded $300 million ($205 million) in the 2019-20 Victorian State Budget for a comprehensive business case, planning and pre-construction work.

Ridership and Fleet Details
In 2031, it is estimated that 210000 passengers will take the urban rail ring line every day, and about 400000 passengers will take the ring line in 2051.

The estimated travel time in the future includes 25 minutes between Clayton and bandola, 25 minutes between Boxhill and the airport, 35 minutes between Broadmeadows and Monash, 45 minutes between Frankston and the airport, and 45 minutes between eltonham and the airport.

The suburban ring line will be equipped with high-tech special trains. Each train can carry up to five carriages to supplement the shorter platform, so as to minimize the walking distance to the station. The fleet will also ensure that passengers can get on and off easily.

Discussion Questions

 * 1) Are there other technologies and transport modes that could more efficiently the deliver transport outcomes?
 * 2) Is the breakdown between SRL East, North and West phases the best way to effectively deliver the project?  How else could it be phased?
 * 3) Given most of the SRL stations are interchanges to the existing suburban rail network, does their design facilitate this purpose (easy and frictionless transitions).
 * 4) How to ensure that the next government can continue to advance the SRL follow-up plan
 * 5) Are existing SRL programs practical and reasonable given the enormous cost? or it is just a showcase of the current government?

Extra Readings
SRL Business and Investment Case Key Findings : https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/578273/SRL-Business-and-Investment-Case-Key-Findings.pdf

The Age investigative article in SRL conception : https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/thrown-in-a-loop-how-daniel-andrews-biggest-project-was-cooked-up-behind-closed-doors-20210804-p58fsf.html

Will the 50b suburban rail loop shape the Melbourne we want::https://www.sgsep.com.au/assets/main/Will-the-50b-suburban-rail-loop-shape-the-Melbourne-we-want.pdf

Suburban Rail Loop Summary Document:https://www.development.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/60007/SRL1459-Suburban-Rail-Loop-Summary-Document-DAY-2_32PP-WEB_V27.pdf