Transportation Planning Casebook/F6-M6 in NSW

Summary
The M6 (formerly known as the F6 extension) is a planned motorway which connects Sydney to the Illawarra Region. The M6 has a total of three stages, with the first stage currently under construction, and stage 2 and 3 yet to be approved. Stage 1 a four-kilometre-long twin motorway tunnel, which will connect to the M8 motorway (formerly known as the New M5 Motorway) in Arncliffe with President Avenue in Kogarah.

The M6 was first proposed in the 1950’s as part of a wider Sydney study which highlighted the need for a strong south link. Due to political aspects, the project remained under ground for quite some time, till it became a talking point in the 2000s. With the start of the new Liberal movement in 2012, the F6 became a strategic priority. The route alignment which would be proposed in 2017 would follow the same route as the initial planned freeway in 1951.

The M6 plays great significance in the network as it's positioned to be one of few public funded toll roads in recent years.

Net Zero
The NSW government, and by extension organizational bodies, have set Net Zero goals. A significant contributor to emissions is transport, contributing to 24 per cent of all emissions. Of this 24 per cent, light vehicles (private or commercial) contributed 66 per cent. Most notable to transport, TfNSW has outlined the goal to reduce emissions from the transport sector to 0 by 2050.

The M6 (in its entirety as well as Stage 1) is a significant project which will incur significant costs. Stage 1 is projected to cost $3 billion, with the entire M6 estimated to be around $10.8 billion. While the project is expected to generate time savings (and thereby emission savings because of petrol savings in reduction of vehicle standby), the project is also expected to lead to induced demand and an increase in vehicle use.

The investment in the M6 does not match up with environmental priorities set out by the Government.

Funding
Funding for the M6 has been achieved via both public funding, making it one of the first public funded toll roads in recent years. The M6-Stage 1 is proposed to have toll rates of:


 * A flat rate of $2.44 (in 2021 dollars) each way
 * Heavy vehicles will pay three times the toll of light vehicles.

Cumberland County Plan (1948)
The Cumberland County Plan (CCP) was officially released in 1948 and officially adopted in 1951. The purpose of the plan was to consider more appropriate and efficient uses of land for the region of Sydney, which was comprised of 68 shires and municipalities and the City of Sydney.

The plan set out not only land use, but proposed transportation across the region. A key point to highlight is the relevancy of the post war on the planning which transpired. With the rapid population growth and economic expansion after the war, updates to the transportation network were required. And with the emergence of private vehicles as the favoured transportation mode, naturally connected road networks were the focus of any transport planning by the CCP.

As part of the CCP, a high-level road network was proposed. Relevant to the case study, a southern expressway, connecting the regions of Sydney CBD and Wollongong.

Corridor Reservation
As a follow-up to the CCP, a series of corridors were reserved. This includes the road corridor from Loftus to St Peters, relevant to the M6 extension.

Sydney Area Transportation Study (SATS) (1974)
Other documentation supporting the Southern Freeway was the SATS. The study highlighted strong demand volumes from the CBD down south (via Sutherland).

1977 - Neville Wran
The proposal for the F6 Southern Freeway, originally planned to connect Ultimo to Wollongong, was abandoned as part of a political pre-election promise to stop the construction of freeways in inner city areas. This political will not only stopped the construction of the F6 (in its totality) but also put a hold on other notable road projects (Warringah Freeway F1, Gorehill Freeway F2, Western Freeway F4, and Eastern Freeway F7).

In addition to the cancelled freeway, the road corridor which had previously been reserved as part of the Cumberland County Plan was also altered. Changes included the removal of the city portion, which included space from the City’s CBD to Huntley Street, (Alexandria), with the remainder of the corridor staying intact.

2002 – Public Transport Corridor
In September 2002, then Transport Minister Carl Scully announced a shift from the planned F6 freeway extension to promoting public transport and recreational use along a 20-kilometer corridor from St Peters to Loftus. This further marked a departure from road expansions, as the area reserved since 1951 would now focus on innovative transport solutions like light rail and bus-only roads while preserving green spaces.

Back on the menu – 2005
In 2005, the debate over the F6 Motorway extension was reignited by Roads Minister Michael Costa, despite his predecessor Carl Scully's decision to halt the project in favour of public transport alternatives. Paul McLeay, the Member for Heathcote, supported the NRMA's survey to assess the project's benefits, advocating for the extension as a crucial link for the Illawarra and Sutherland Shire residents. This move suggested a potential reversal of Scully's earlier plans, emphasizing ongoing conflicts within the government and between different stakeholders regarding Sydney's transport infrastructure priorities.

State Election – 2007
Leading up to the NSW state election, talks around the F6 extension would restart. While Michael Costa highlighted the project in 2005, no new development on the F6 occurred. With no firm positions held by the state parties, discussions for the F6 were brought to light by local MPs and external parties (NRMA and Tourism and Transport Forum (TTF)).

NRMA’s push for the F6 found support within the Liberal Party, with Miranda Candidate Graham Annesley. The (Miranda) Labour opposition was adamantly against the F6 extension, due to potential of increased traffic on local roads.

Labor wins – limbo (2007 – 2011)
After Labour’s win in 2007, the F6 was shelved. During this period, there was no state budget allocation to the planning or study of the F6.

In 2010, Scott Morrison, now former Australian Prime minister, at the time Shadow Minister, highlighted the need for the F6 extension and the failure of the Labour party to deliver it.

Back on the Menu
With the Coalition Government back at the helm after a 16-year absence (last held in 1995), the F6 was quickly reintroduced as a major project. The liberal party issued two key documents within a short period of time, which would highlight the F6 as a key strategic project which would bring major improvements to the network.

The State Infrastructure Strategy 2012 – 2032
The State Infrastructure Strategy (SIS) is a 20-year strategic infrastructure plan which sets out future initiatives and opportunities to address infrastructure challenges and enhance productivity, living standards, and economic growth. The plan is updated every 4 years to maintain a relevant focus on the required infrastructure.

The strategy had the F6 officially added to the project agenda, with plans to roll it out within a timeframe of 10 to 20 years. This F6 extension would be between Sydney Airport and the locality of Waterfall. Note that, in the project's framing, the strategy highlights that it could be accelerated if the private sector provided financing.

The plan scoped the project to cost $3 billion, assuming all work was done above ground. It was also assumed that two thirds of the funding would be contributed by user funding.

NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan 2012
The Master Plan was the first comprehensive transport plan developed by the Liberal government in New South Wales after they came into power in 2011. The plan aligned with the SIS, which was issued a few months prior.

A key gap identified in the plan is the missing sections in the motorway network, particularly the F6 which does not provide access to the network from the south.

This plan would be the first to reference the alignment the extension of the F6, which outlined the connection between Loftus and St Peters.

State budget 2014 - 2015
The F6 extension would receive its first set of funding in the 2014-2015 budget of $10 million for a feasibility study.

Route Alignment
While planning was being done in the background, the official announcement for the F6 extension came in October 2017 as part of the 2056 Future Transport Strategy.

The route alignment assessed four different routes, which included:


 * F6 Corridor: Aligned with the reserved corridor for the F6 Southern Freeway as identified in the Cumberland County Plan
 * A1 Corridor: Aligned with the Princes Highway
 * A3 Corridor: Aligned with the Princes Highway and King Georges Road
 * A6 Corridor: Aligned with Heathcote Road, New Illawarra Road, Alfords Point Road, Davies Road and Fairford Road

Planning found that the F6 corridor would be most suitable.

Economic Benefits
As per the 2018 business case, the project was found to have a benefit to cost ratio of 1.56. BCRs for the release of the different amounts of the F6 reserved corridor were also assessed as a comparison. All BCR’s returned values greater than 1, with the most conservative assumption returning a BCR of 1.2.

The benefits of the project have been assessed over a 30-year operational period. The residual value of assets with a lifespan greater than 30 years has been valued at $88 million and included within the calculation of transport benefits.

Controversy
While there has been opposition to the M6, it has not amassed the same level of controversy as the WestConnex. Protests regarding the M6 have been seen on the local level as well as incorporated in larger protests against toll roads in Sydney. Protests for stage 1 have mostly been in regard to induced demand, citing that the extension will increase the amount of traffic on local roads.

In addition to the wary concerns of locals, there has been political controversy regarding the beneficiary of M6. While the project will bring economic benefit (as seen through the business case) to Sydney, it should also be highlighted that owner of WestConnex (a consortium of private investors, most notably Transurban) will also benefit. With the M6 not connecting on the Genral Holm Drive, it provides users limited opportunities to leave the toll road eco-system, thus generating additional revenue for toll collectors.

Start
Construction of the M6 Stage 1 began in November 2021. The project was awarded to a joint venture between CPB Contractors, UGL, and Ghella.

To date
As of April 24, over 70% tunnel excavation across the project alignment.

Trouble in paradise
On the 1st of March 2024, excavation works at the tunnels near West Botany Street halted due to the formation of sink holes. The factory located 16-metres above the tunnels experienced a partial collapse.

Later that month, on the 9th of March, another subsidence event occurred near the south-bound tunnel, approximately 12m from the surface.

Since these events, the CGU joint venture has paused all tunnelling work in the affected areas while assessments are conducted. Geotechnical and engineering evaluations are underway to understand the subsidence and its implications on the project timeline.

Stage 1
Stage 1 of the M6 from WestConnex at Arncliffe to President Avenue, Kogarah is due for completion in 2025.

Stage 2 and 3
Stage 2: President Avenue to Tarren Point and Stage 3: Tarren Point to Loftus have no available timeline, funding commitment, or planning approval.

A large factor in the delay to these projects is the current market constraints and labour shortages.

Discussion questions

 * Why hasn't the M6 received the same level of opposition as the WestConnex?
 * What does public financing mean for toll operators?
 * Will we ever see M6 - Stage 2 and 3? (and should we see one?)