Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/High Speed Rail China

Introduction of High-Speed Rail China High Speed Rail (HSR) is a train network that consists of trains that travel at speeds consisting of 350km/hr. The main difference between high-speed rail and normal freight rail besides the model of train is that high speed railway networks cannot have tight turns or significant changes in elevation [1]. In 2007 China introduced high speed rail services and later in 2008 China unveiled its first high speed rail track, connecting Beijing to Tianjin. Initially in 2008 there was only 1000 km worth of operational high speed rail lines in China. Since 2008 China has rapidly expanded its high-speed rail network, it reported that currently the network is 45,000 km at the end of 2023 with more new lines to be added to the network. Currently there are three types of high-speed rail trains in China: C Class for intercity travel, D Class second fastest type of train and the G Class the fastest train used for long distance journeys.

Innovation of High-Speed Rail

The introduction of High-Speed Rail was first introduced in Japan in 1964 and was known as the Shinkansen also commonly referred to as the bullet train. High speed rail was different to conventional rail as high-speed rail trains could travel almost twice as fast as the conventional trains at the time. The main technological difference that separated high speed rail from the traditional rail was high speed rail had to be run on specific tracks, the design of the tracks had fever curves than the typical tracks to reduce the chance of derailment. Another key difference was that the Shinkansen had specific gauges that were different for standard trains [2]. High speed rail would bring together and integrate technology from rail and modern-day electrical systems to create an efficient and fast running train that meets the demands of modern consumers. China would take these initial blueprints from the original high speed rail line in Japan and expand on it during the development of HSR in China. Specifically, for HSR in China there were four technological improvements that helped to further enhance operation speed of the railway system in China. The four improvements are related to the railway line, control system, traction power supply and the EMU (electrical moving unit). As technology advances and safety concerns arise, construction of track became a focus, specifically strength, stiffness, durability, settlement after construction and geometric dimensions [3]. The EMU is an important component of high-speed trains, high speed trains in China re-innovated this by altering such components of the trains such as aluminium body, high-speed bogie, traction converter and braking system. These alterations have allowed its models of trains to achieve operations speed of 350 km/hr. Control system is used to control and regulate the speed of the train stops at stations. This process runs through an advanced control network. Traction power supply system is responsible for the safety and reliability of electrical processes.

Effects of the introduction of High-Speed Rail in China The introduction of High-Speed Rail in China as it allowed for more efficient and faster travel across China with the main target market being Chinese people and tourist. In addition, the introduction of more lines has allowed greater accessibility to multiple cities in China, while also transforming the way people travel across China. Since the introduction of high-speed rail in China alongside its rapid expansion, it was found that there was a decrease of 28.7% in the number of passenger flights and a reduction of 31.8% of aviation passengers. The environmental benefits of these reductions in air travel means that there will be a reduction in air traffic emissions, it was found that between 2012 to 2015 there was a net saving of 1.76 million tons of carbon dioxide [3]. In addition, HSR has also increased economic development of regions and economic growth, this is because HSR has increased the population mobility in China meaning more quicker and frequency travel to different regions.

Mode of Transport Before the Introduction High Speed Rail in China Before the introduction of high-speed rail and high-speed rail lines in 2008, people would use traditional trains such as stream trains and electric trains to travel across China. In addition, cars and buses were also used and are favoured for shorter trips, while commercial flights are favoured for longer trips. Although the railway network was extensive due to the early development of railway in the late 19th century, the main disadvantages of these trains where they are uncomfortable, overcrowded, and slow, with a traveling speed of 49 km/hr-120 km/hr in the 1994. As more modern trains were introduced, a fast speed rail of 200 km/hr was added to the network [4]. These additions to the network did not do much to address the current disadvantages of the old network. Another form of travel around China was domestic commercial flights also known as civil aviation. This mode was mainly used for longer journeys of travel. The main issues with this mode of transport are that the flights are usually slow due to security reasons and are considered often more unreliable. Furthermore, another disadvantage of flights is that they have a lower frequency than High Speed Rail and the price of tickets are higher than train tickets. In addition, cars and buses also are also another mode of transport. The main disadvantages of this mode of travel are that it is slower than high speed rail due to speed limits and unpredictable traffic. Specifically for buses they are often considered uncomfortable and are more prone to reliability issues compared to HSR. Also, multiple switching between buses for longer routes is also a major disadvantage. Since the introduction of high-speed rail in China, studies have shown that there has been a reduction in occupation rates in buses where HSR lines exist and reduction in domestic air travel of 27.9% [5].This can be attributed to the evolution of the HSR network as more routes have been added to the system and the Chinese consumer has been given more reason to choose HSR over the prior existing forms of transport available.

Early Market Development

The primary market during the development of High-Speed Rail in China was identified to be Chinese passengers, specifically road and airport users due to increasing passenger demand for this, but also with a goal to impact passenger transportation patterns. Functional enhancement and functional discoveries of HSR with the introduction of additional new lines changed the transportation market. At the early stages of the HSR being introduced in China ridership was low, as people had not fully adopted HSR, current modes such as cars, buses and planes were still favoured. In 2011, China made policy changes to the operation of the High-Speed Rail. These changes were made after the Wenzhou collision in July 2011, where two trains collided on a viaduct and derailed killing 40 passengers and injuring 200. This incident impacted the public confidence in high rail and later in August the Chinese government would act by introducing railway deceleration policy which lowered the operational speed of High-Speed Rail trains from 350km/hr to 300km/hr [6]. Furthermore, with public confidence at a low and a lower-than-expected ridership due to high ticket prices, In August 2011, to help generate greater ridership numbers of ticket prices were lowered by about 5%. In 2012 the Chinese government reinvested in high-speed rail. This investment increased the budget of spending which led to the expansion of high-speed rail and reaffirming the Chinese government's commitment to high-speed rail. The introduction of these new lines allowed for greater accessibility between cities in China, as new lines were introduced public perception of HSR changed as it was cheaper than flying, quick reliable travel time and high frequency of departures. As HSR ridership increased, a shift in the transportation market occurred as more people switched to using HSR. Research found as more people switched to using HSR other modes of transport have been impacted, influencing the transport market. An example of this can be seen in the Ningbo-Hangzhou as occupancy rates of buses decreased by 25.89% and Beijing and Tianjin decreased 48.2% after the opening of the line. As ridership numbers of HSR increased in 2017 fares for certain lines of HSR were raised by 10-50% [7].

Policies in the birthing phase

Various policies were deployed and introduced by the Chinese government to achieve the goals set out for the High-Speed Rail network. The main policies implemented can be broken down into four main themes which are technology development, financial support, HSR engineering projects and safety systems with technology development and engineering projects as the high priority focus for the Chinese government. During the early stages of developments since HSR is a technology-intensive industry, early policies focused on the design of technology and introduction. Policies such as Provisional Regulations for Design of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway was issued in 2004, as technology advanced later the China High Speed Train Independent Innovation Joint Action Plan was launched in 2008 [8]. These policies would later help develop other standards and specifications such as the Code for Design of High-Speed Railway 2014 helping ensure. Furthermore, early policies focused on reforming the railway market, such as ownership separation of the railway operations and railway infrastructure proposed in 1998 with railway operation reforms being imposed in 2003 [8]. At this stage the Chinese government had several financial funding policies such as tax incentives and subsidies to help stimulate the development of the HSR. These policies would later help set policies relating to the improvement of investment and financing of HSR. Regarding HSR engineering many policies were implemented by the Chinese government revolving around construction and operation of HSR projects. The early stages of the policies focused on railway infrastructure with strong emphasis on network planning, bridges, and platform design [8]. Later as technology began to grow the focus shifted towards HSR equipment. As more HSR rail projects were being undertaken, policies would later shift to project management. These policies would help to establish the importance of improving transport services within the High-Speed Rail network. The Chinese government closely monitors the safety system of High-Speed Rail. During the whole development of the HSR safety was a primary focus for policies. At the start of development HSR safety focused mainly on transportation safety and would later shift to emergency systems. These early policies would help to develop regulations such as Regulation on the Administration of Railway Safety. These four key areas of policy are the building blocks that would help develop further policies and regulations to help improve the high-speed rail network. By formulating policies related to investment, financing, taxation, and price the government encourages participation in market activities. Current policy making HSR is mainly market-oriented with a primary focus on the development of HSR. Most of China’s success in HSR can be attributed to the policies supported by the Chinese government.

Mature Phase

HSR in China begins to enter its mature phase in 2019 as ridership data can be seen to have begun to decrease and would follow the same trend in the subsequent years. This trend can be attributed many factors such as more competitive prices for commercial air travel to compete with the demands of high-speed rail, but the main driving force can be attributed to COVID-19 pandemic which saw a reduction in public transport usage due to growing health concerns and eventual lockdown and travel restrictions which greater impacted the ridership numbers. To contract and restimulate the HSR network, China has decided to further expand its network widening the market as well as to complete with other markets the HSR has improved operating plan timetable and increased the capacity of trains. The HSR network is also developing new train that can achieve speed of 620 km/hr [6] and further developing high speed rail technology.

Reinventing High Speed Rail in China HSR in China is pretty flawless as it is efficient and reliable with high frequency of service, reinventing High Speed Rail apart from the addition of more lines would be lowering prices of tickets as further research found that people from lower income households do not use HSR as much compared to middle to high income household, improving accessibility to all social economic classes would go far in positive change that will meet the needs of consumers. In addition, the integration of cleaner and renewable sources of energy into the system to power the network will greatly benefit China, since there is currently an environmental problem.

Quantitative Analysis of High-Speed Rail in China A quantitative analysis of High-Speed Rail in China was performed using the ridership data from 2008 to 2021. The life cycle of mode can be visualized and modelled using the S-curve inputting annual ridership data which can be used to determine the birthing, growth, and maturity phases. The data used to generate the curve was from Statista and an estimate was made. S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)] Where: •	S(t) is the status measure, (Annual Ridership) •	 t is time (Years) •	 ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is reached), •	 Smax is saturation status level to be estimated. •	b is a coefficient to be estimated. Single linear regression was used to find coefficients to find the estimation of passengers. Specific coefficients c and b from the equation below:

Y = bX + c

Different values of K (maximum saturation) were used to determine the maximum value of R^2 closet to 1.0. To achieve this single variable linear regression was used for each year and every year with different K value.

Results and Discussion



Table 1: Annual actual data compared to predicted data



Figure 1: S-Curve of HSR China

From the results shown in Figure 1, the maximum saturation of passengers 2.5 billon passengers and that the half saturation can be observed in 2016. The predicted ridership line in comparison to the actual ridership is fairly accurate in the initial stages, but as the mode continues to grow both the passengers and predicted passengers greatly differ as the actual data is significantly greater than the predicted data. Hence the model is not completely accurate as it doesn’t correct predict the lifecycle. The reason for this could be that the expansion of additional lines were finished quicker or ahead of schedule which expanded the market for HSR, this could be a reason for why the ridership data is different from the predicted. From the graph it can be assumed that the birthing phase is from 2008-2010 is there is very slight increases in ridership. The graph shown in figure 1 also indicates significant increases in ridership in the period of 2011-2018 which signals the growth phase. From 2019 onwards can be considered the maturity phase as ridership takes a drastic decline in ridership, however this data is not completely accurate and illustrates the life cycle of HSR in China as external factors such as the COVID 19 pandemic has influenced ridership numbers.

References

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4.	LHuillier, R.C. (2019) The evolution of China’s High Speed Rail Network, Welcome To China. Available at: https://welcometochina.com.au/the-evolution-of-high-speed-rail-in-china-7726.html (Accessed: 07 March 2024).

5.	Chen, Z. (2017) ‘Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air transportation in China’, Journal of Transport Geography, 62, pp. 184–196. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.04.002.

6.	Jones, B. (2022) The evolution of China’s incredible high-speed rail network, CNN. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/china-high-speed-rail-cmd/index.html (Accessed: 07 March 2024).

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8.	Li, H. et al. (2021) ‘Policy Analysis for high-speed rail in China: Evolution, evaluation, and expectation’, Transport Policy, 106, pp. 37–53. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.03.019.

9.	Zhang, W. (2024) China: Length of High Speed Rail Operation Network 2023, Statista. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1120063/china-length-of-high-speed-rail-operation-network/ (Accessed: 07 March 2024).

10.	Yuan, Z., Dong, C. and Ou, X. (2023) ‘The substitution effect of high-speed rail on civil aviation in China’, Energy, 263, p. 125913. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.125913. 11.	Zhang, W. (2024b) China: Passenger transport volume of highspeed rail 2021, Statista. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1120071/china-passenger-transport-volume-of-highspeed-rail/ (Accessed: 01 March 2024).