Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Copenhagen Metro

Copenhagen Metro
The development of public transport and infrastructure supporting cities around the world such as Copenhagen has become more critical in an ever growing and more globalised world in a way to boost the success and efficiency of a city, as well as increase its appeal on a global scale. The introduction of The Metro system into the Copenhagen urban fabric from 2002 has contributed greatly in the reduction of use of cars within the main city centre, and for a greater transition to the use of public transport around the Greater Copenhagen region, fostering a more sustainable transition into movement into, and around the city. The Greater Copenhagen region has around 2 million inhabitants, with almost 0.7 million of those living in City of Copenhagen, thus the introduction of the Metro was vital in the development of the city and its surroundings.

The Metro Technology
Metros are a form of rapid transit first developed in 1863 in London. They are often characterised by their high capacity, speed and high level of safety, designed for short to medium distances, unlike traditional trains, which often travel over longer distances within a regional, rather than metropolitan scope. The Copenhagen Metro network, first opened in 2002, consists of four main lines, seen in Figure 1, operating on a frequency-based timetable, twenty-four hours a day. It was developed to counteract the rising ownership and usage of private cars, and to further improve the efficiency of the existing infrastructure into, and within the main city centre to promote higher public transport use. The areas that The Metro cover, promote land development and redevelopment, including changes in the urban use of neighbouring land. Typically, positive commercial growth follows on from the implementation of a metro system, allowing employment opportunities to present itself along the metro corridor. Furthermore, residential developments often arise along the metro passage in the outer city centre, allowing for the growth of new hubs. Both these types of growth are demonstrated in the development of Ørestad, towards the south of Copenhagen City, still a growing area that has been steadily evolving due its ease of accessibility to and from the city.

Pre-Metro Context
Copenhagen and surroundings underwent rapid development following on from a period of recession from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. This caused an increase in the tertiary sector, more houses being built, and a growth in several industries including pharmaceuticals and information technology. As a result, the Danish government set into motion the development of a number of large projects in the coming decades to further boost the economy, better connect Greater Copenhagen with the rest of the country, separated on three main islands: Zealand, Funen and Jutland, seen in Figure 2, and better connect Copenhagen on a metropolitan scale. This was done to bring up the city, and as a result, the country onto a more global scale, on par with other major European cities which had already underwent similar transformations.

Private Car Ownership
The 1950s and 1960s saw an increase in the ownership and usage of private cars, alongside a time in which the Danish government was planning Copenhagen and surrounding municipalities’ public transport systems. The accessibility and use of private cars during this time caused some traditional companies and public institutions to move away from the growing city centre, into the suburbs between the 1970s to 1990s. The open greenfield space, ease of accessibility via private car and cheaper sites drew companies out of the main city, thus further pushing the private car agenda during this period of time.

To counteract the growing popularity of private cars, the Road Agency (now the Danish Road Traffic Authority) was established to further investigate the design and construction of a more holistic and comprehensive national highway system. This was necessary as the capital city Copenhagen is situated on the East most island Zealand, with ferries across the Great Belt to connect it to the middle island Funen, and North Jutland island. The 1990s finally saw the construction of The Great Belt Link, a bridge opened in 1998 connecting the main islands together. This provided a better and more efficient connection into the capital city, to further support the economic growth and development of the nation.

The Five Finger Plan
The initial development of the Five Finger Plan in 1948, then further implemented in 1974, was the main regional planning principle implemented in Greater Copenhagen, driving the development of the existing regional rail network (S-trains) prior to the development of the Metro. Railway lines were built stretching out in five directions from the main city, to control urban sprawl, while leaving space for recreational and green areas in between the five ‘fingers’, seen in Figure 3. The 1989 Regional Plan for Greater Copenhagen further refined the initial Five Finger Plan, with development on planned urban centre hubs outside of the main city. There was also an emphasis on the development of new offices to only be situated within walking distance of a train station, which were located along the ‘fingers.’

Development of The Metro
Copenhagen city’s metro system was developed alongside the national highway system, and after the implementation of the Five Finger Plan, to further reduce the use of private cars in and around the city, promoting the use of fast, efficient public transport. It further built on and connected to the existing regional rail and bus network. Construction on Phase 1 of the metro began in 1994, successfully opened in 2002, with Phase 2, 3 and 4 opening in subsequent years. The Metro was successfully constructed and met its intended purpose of promoting the use of public transport and as a result, reduce the use of private vehicles within the city centre in particular. This was accomplished through a combination of a positive economic upturn coupled with positive governmental decisions that were followed through from initiation to completion.

The Copenhagen Metro
The Copenhagen Metro is the city’s most used form of public transport, taking up to two million passengers a week on its driverless metro train network. Four lines are currently in use, seen in Figure 3, with an extension on the M4 in currently under construction. Three lines run from one terminal to another, with the M3 making up the most recently constructed City Ring. The network has a twin tunnel track length of 43km, between a total of over forty stations, eight of which link up directly to the S-train network. Services run based on frequency, rather than specific times all through the day, and through the evening. During rush hour, metro trains arrive in intervals of two to four minute, and frequencies vary depending on time of day. Each of the trains consist of three cars, fully accessible from one end to the other, each train with a capacity of 300 people, 100 of which can be seated. The shift away from private car use, buses and trains to the metro took a while to pick up traction, as the metro lines were being phased into use over a period of a decade, with Stage 1 opening in 2002 first, Stage 2 in 2004, Phase 3 in 2007.

One framework that can be utilised to investigate the implementation and successful survival of a new niche technology (The Metro) into an already established environment is through dissecting three key dynamics: shielding, nurturing and empowerment. This framework was coined by Rob Raven, Professor of Sustainability Transitions and Research Director at Monash University, Melbourne, and Adrian Smith, a Professor at the Department of Management at the University of Sussex, Brighton.

Shielding
Shielding is the protection of new initiatives, against unfavourable markets and environments. The implementation of restrictive and expensive parking policies, coupled with the policy of high taxing on the ownership of cars, up to 150% of the cost of the car has helped shield against unfavourable market outcomes. The Metro against the upkeep and potential increase of private automobile usage. Taxes on cars, which fell under the ‘luxury goods’ category initially introduced in 1910, increased steadily. In 1934, there were approximately 34 cars for every 1000 people in Denmark, on par with neighbouring European countries such as Germany. In 2016, this had number was 200 cars for every 1000 people, compared to 900 cars for every 1000 people in the United States. The heavy taxes have discouraged the Danes from purchasing cars and to utilise the public transport system in combination with cycling. It’s interesting to note the lack of national automotive industry, and thus major industry backlash, allowing for the high taxing of cars. In contrast, most other countries such as the United States and China, is one of the key reasons why tax placed upon cars are relatively lower. Thus, the implementation of increased car taxes along with restrictive parking policies have helped shield The Metro against unfavourable markets, and keep the ownership and usage of cars at a minimum, promoting the use of public transport and cycling.

Nurturing
Nurturing is the adjacent activities supporting the new initiative to allow for its future survival with minimal support. The development of urban squares around the Metro stations was done to create a clear, safe and approachable access into the metro station. The squares around the station entrances are supported by bike racks and clear way finding to get to the station. The countless racks built allow users to access the station quickly and efficiently by bike, to leave at the station, or onto the metro via the lifts. Half of all trips made by car in Europe cover a distance of under 5km, with 30% under 3km. These are trips which can take between fifteen to thirty minutes by bike. With infrastructure supporting the usage to and from the metro via bike, these trip times can be cut even shorter and made in a more sustainable manner, rather than driving a short distance in a private automobile. The provision of bicycle parking and fast and efficient lifts into the station from above ground further nurtures the use and survival of the metro’s survival. Furthermore, the comfort and size of the S-train and bus fleet were also improved to meet demands of more people riding the train into the city, to transfer onto the metro to reach their final destination.

Empowerment
Empowerment refers to the act of intervening in the environment to help support the manifestation of favourable conditions for a new niche technology. Empowerment exists in two forms, the first of which is the fitting and conformance of a technology to the existing market and environment. One way in which the metro was fitted to suit the existing market was the design of four ‘flex zone’ within each train, where seats can be flipped up to provide more space. These zones not only accommodate for prams, but also for bicycles too, should there be a need to take it from one station to another. This is significant due to the prolific ownership and usage of bicycles through Copenhagen and beyond.

Empowerment can also exist in the fitting and conforming of the existing environment by supporting the recently developed technology and discourage from existing forms of technology. This was done through changing the bus supplies and schedules to reduce competition with the metro, fostering uptake of the metro system. Movia, the primary transit agency for buses in Copenhagen predicted that the opening of the 2019 City Ring would drop bus transit users from 47% to 34%. Furthermore, the establishment of the A-line bus network served as an access and egress method to and from the metro stations, transferring people to their final destination more efficiently. Like the metro timetable, these buses operate based on frequency, rather than specific times. Thus a combination of some of these interventions in the existing environment help empower favourable conditions for The Metro into the future.

Quantitative Analysis of Annual Passengers
To conduct an analysis of predicted life-cycle of the Copenhagen Metro, an S-curve was produced using data on annual number of riders from Statistics Denmark . Even though the metro was operational from 2002, public data from Statistics Denmark was only available from 2006. The S-Curve was found through the equation below, where S(t) was the status measure, S_Max was the saturation status level, t was time in years, t_0 was inflection time (where half of the max level was achieved) and b was an arbitrary coefficient.

$$S(t)={\frac{S_{Max}}{[1+e^{-b(t-t_i)}]}} $$

A linear regression model was run on Excel, producing results of the following values, seen in Table 1. Figure 4 illustrates the observed annual passenger count from 2006-2023, and the predicted annual passenger count in subsequent years, up to 2050, predicting the Birthing, Growth and Maturity of the system. Table 2 details the observed annual passenger count in the thousands, against the predicted annual passenger count.

Analysis of Actual vs Predicted Passenger Count
Steady growth in passengers on the metro can be seen in both the actual and predicted values from 2006 to 2018, however, the actual value jumps up in 2019, before falling rapidly in 2020, due to the Covid-19 Pandemic, causing reduced ridership due to partial lockdowns, among other means of suppressing the spread of the virus, despite the City Ring having just opened in 2019. These numbers quickly recovered in following years and have been on a steady increase, with current values almost on par with the predicted mode.

Figure 5 provides an estimated model up to 2081, showing a more clear delineation of the Birthing, Growth and Maturity phases. The relatively new birth of The Copenhagen Metro lends less data to investigate compared to other more established metro systems such as London and Paris, thus the life cycle prediction is only based off twenty years worth of data. This may cause limitations in the data analysed as a more accurate prediction cannot be drawn from the available data. Nevertheless, a rough life cycle can still be extrapolated from the data provided. It can be seen that the Birthing period existed from 2002 up to about 2010, when passengers were increasing at a more steady rate. The Growth period exists from 2010 to about 2070, where the curve begins to slow down in rate of increase, with Maturity from 2070 onwards.

Adoption and Growth of The Metro
Figure 6 illustrates the growth in employment in metro-served areas around the Greater Copenhagen region, with the most significant growth seen along the M1 line from Vanløse to Ørestad. The Ørestad area was a developing area which in the late 1900s had been a focal geographical point of the city which the government were planning on growing into another strong hub. The first office buildings were erected in 2001 at Ørestad, and by 2016 there were 17,000 jobs in the area. This illustrates the way in which the completion of the M2 line in 2002 majorly boosted the growth in employment in this initially underdeveloped part of the outer city. The opening of the M2 through Christianhavn shows a similar positive trend of increasing employment growth after the construction of the Metro line. The public sector (The Danish Government and local municipalities) pushed the growth of the metro moreso than the private sector. This is clear from the initial strategic planning of the City of Copenhagen and Greater Copenhagen back in 1948 during the drafting of 'The Finger Plan'. The introduction of the metro led to more people utilising the public transport system, which was designed to connect smoothly with the existing S-train infrastructure. Research conducted in 2005 on the impacts of the Copenhagen Metro on transport by Goran Vuk, from the Danish Transport Research Institute revealed a number of findings right after Phase 1 was opened in 2002. He found that between 2002 to 2003:


 * The average travel distance per day per person rose from 30.93km to 33.90km.


 * Car trip lengths decreased from 13km to 11km, presumably due to the shift in uptake of the Metro.
 * The average public transport trip length increased from 9.4km to 9.6km.
 * Train trip averages increased in distance, possibly due to the efficient transition from S-train from outside of Copenhagen, to the final designation in the city via the Metro.

The population of the City of Copenhagen has risen by 200,000 residents from 1990 to 2022, with further growth in 2035 projected to be an additional 100,000 residents. As such, the further development of the metro system is crucial in meeting the rising demand. Extensions on the M4 line by a further five stations towards Sydhavn, set to open in 2024 illustrates the continual growth of the metro system. Additional extensions of the metro line combined with further government policy making will help create a more well rounded, better connected infrastructure system in Copenhagen City and the Greater Region, allowing for positive, sustainable growth into the future.