Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Tianjin

Historical Overview
The first railroad in China was built in 1876. However, it was resisted by the conservative Qing government and the public at that time. It was dismantled after less than a year of operation. Then in 1881, a second railroad was built to meet the needs of coal transportation. This railroad was a standard government-run railroad. It was the prototype and foundation of modern railroads in China. This railroad connected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. It was named "Tangxu Railway." It was later extended to Tianjin in 1887 and renamed "Jin-Tang Railway." This was the beginning of the era of actual railroad transportation in China. At the same time, the Tianjin Railway also began to take shape. The Tianjin Railway was first built in 1886 and had more than 100 years of history. Tianjin Station is one of the oldest railway stations in China. It is an important transportation hub in northern China.

Characteristics of railroad traffic and market
Railroad transportation has many features. First of all, it has accuracy and continuity. Rail transportation means that passengers and goods are transported according to the established tracks and plans. This means that railroad transportation is hardly affected by weather and time. Railway transportation can work regardless of the climate. Secondly, railroad transportations run faster. Some data show that the speed of railroads can reach 80-120 per kilometer per hour. The third point is that the transport capacity of railroad transport is very high. Railroad transportation uses high-powered locomotives for traction operation. The tractive force can reach tens of thousands of tons. This means that railroad transport can carry ultra-high-weight transport tasks. Car cargo carrying capacity is much larger than air and car transportation. Finally, the cost of railroad transportation is low.

In comparison, the cost of railroad transportation is much lower than that of air and automobile transportation. All these features are the positive aspects of railroad transportation. There are also some limitations of railroad transportation. For example, railroad transportation can be affected by the geographical environment. Some destinations need to pass through mountains and seas, etc. Railroad transportation cannot go to these destinations.

For China, the primary market for rail transportation is to serve the movement of people to and from the country. China is a large country with a dense population. At the same time, China's major cities are located inland. There is a need for a safe, high-speed, and low-cost way of transportation between cities to meet the demand. Moreover, as commerce continues to grow, the frequency and demand for trade between cities are increasing. The high carrying capacity and fast transportation of railroad transportation can be maximized.

Pre-history and its limitations
The Tianjin Railway, its official construction was in 1881. However, Tianjin also has a long transportation history before the actual operation and construction of the Tianjin Railway. Tianjin is connected to a seaport, and internally, it is located at the intersection of northern and southern China. At the same time, it is adjacent to Beijing, the capital of China. This means that Tianjin has been a significant and prosperous city with a large population since ancient times. This provided a good breeding ground for the development of the transportation system. Before the official construction of the Tianjin Railway, Tianjin's primary mode of transportation was by man or horsepower. As time progressed, the transportation needs of Tianjin increased. For example, Tianjin needed to transport a large number of coal mines. This led to the construction of the railroad. Because compared with traditional transportation methods such as automobile and workforce, railroad transportation meets both the demand of volume and cost requirements.

Of course, railroad transportation has some limitations; first of all, the construction period and cost are too long and too large, and the payback period is also very long. Taking the cost of conventional railroads in China as an example, the cost of an ordinary two-line electrified railroad (including supporting facilities) is about 30 million per kilometer. This investment is a one-time investment with a long payback period. This can lead to no way to turn the construction of railroads into a commercial market. The railroad can only be built as a government-supported project. Secondly, railroad transportation will be limited by the track needs to be more flexible. Because railroads must operate according to the established track, the transport of goods and people need other modes of transportation to reach their destinations. The last point is that the infrastructure and capital of railroad transportation cannot be recovered or resold after the cessation of operation. This can lead to waste to some extent.

Evolution
The development of transportation is driven by the transportation requirements imposed by the external environment, which usually refers to market demand. At the same time, each transport mode will meet different transport requirements. Then, depending on the market and characteristics, they are realized into different practical transport applications. Together, these combine to form a transportation system and structure. A look at the history of transportation shows that the evolution of the industrial structure of transportation usually depends on the development of the economy. In the early economic development stages, railroad transport carried mainly bulk freight. In the middle period, the demand for passenger transportation gradually increases. In the later stages of economic development, the overall demand for rail transport decreases. The changing economy is also stimulating innovation in rail transport. With the renewal of air and steam transport, rail transport is trying new profitability and development model methods under such competitive pressure and, for example, upgrading the equipment of carriages to attract more passengers.

Technical expertise
The core of railroad technology is to break the speed limit constantly. With the development of technology, the actual speed of 30 kilometers per hour has changed to the current speed of 300 kilometers per hour. At the same time, in China, the railroad has also ushered in the era of high-speed rail. Compared with the past, the transport speed has increased ten times. In addition, the signal technology is also being improved.

Railway Market
In the transport market, railroads are enhanced by increasing the speed of engines, modifying the materials and construction of bodies, and enhancing the signal transmission between lines. All these functional enhancements have a single purpose: to increase the efficiency of railroad transport. Increased efficiency means lower transport costs and higher transport capacity. This leads to a gradual shift in the balance of the choice of mainstream transport modes in the market in favor of rail transport. So functional enhancement plays a role of a pusher in the market. The functional enhancement will expand the influence of railroad transport.

The functional discovery means innovation, which may be a change in the mode of operation or technical innovation. The discovery of functionality may change the market because new technology innovation will reorganize the market structure. In the history of China's railroad development, before the emergence of high-speed rail, railroad transportation carried bulk cargo transportation and some passenger transportation. Passenger transportation was mainly carried by steam and air transport. Because the last railroad passenger transport time needed to be shorter to meet the needs of long-distance passengers. However, when high-speed rail emerged, it was now contracted to carry many long-distance passengers in China's transportation system.

Birth of the Policy
Tianjin Railway's system represents the Chinese railroad policy and the operation mode. China's railroad operation policy is mainly based on the European railroad system. The European railroad system was the world's first and leading concept and model. This borrowing idea has been continued until today. The European railroad system is characterized by the European Railway Directive (EC), the Technical Specification for European Railway Interconnection (TSI), the EU standards (EN), and the corporate standards. The Chinese railroads have created the Tianjin Railway Operation Policy on top of the EU railroad system, taking into account their national conditions. Communication technology is used to support communication between stations and lines. The government provides the operating and construction costs.

The governmental authorities make the innovation of the Tianjin railroad policy through the establishment of a particular group for policy decisions. The group discusses the innovation and implementation of the policy. Based on Tianjin's own economic and market conditions.

Government support
Due to China's high cost, long payback period, and low profitability of railroads, they need to be wholly marketed. Therefore, the Chinese government has also introduced some policies to support the development of railroads. For example, in 2005, the Chinese government adopted China's first Medium and Long Term Railway Network Plan, which clearly defines the medium and long-term construction goals of China's railroad network. After implementing this plan, the Beijing-Tianjin Intercity Railway and other projects were started one after another. In 2005, the investment in railroad capital construction exceeded RMB 100 billion.

The growth phase
In the mid-nineteenth century, the Chinese government made great efforts to develop the railroad business. During this period, China had a high demand for railroads to develop its economy and the northern steel industry. Also, due to economic growth, the railroad business in Tianjin saw a wave of high tide. Tianjin was strategically located to link inland cities in the north internally and ports out to sea externally. The construction of the Tianjin Railway met the political needs of the country.

The mature phase
The maturity of the Tianjin Railway was probably in the middle and late 20th centuries. In this period, the Tianjin railroad system tended to be perfect. It has a more mature dispatching, management, and operation system. At the same time, since the beginning of the 20th century. China vigorously developed its transportation business. Many human and material resources have been devoted to steam and air transportation, which has brought some limitations to the resource support of railroad transportation. Both steam and air transportation have been developed rapidly. This also brings a certain competitive pressure to the railroad transportation market. With the popularity of the concept of sustainability, for the future development of railroad transportation, the people concerned may focus on innovating new energy or reducing the emission reduction of railroad transportation.

Data
Based on the relevant data provided by the Tianjin Bureau of Statistics, the annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro from 1995 to 2021 was derived. These data were fitted and analyzed to determine the three stages of its development: birth, growth period, and maturity period. The three-parameter function of the fitted data is

S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]

Where:


 * S(t) - Modelled system length in a given year, t.
 * Smax – Maximum length that each system reached
 * ti – Time period at inflection point (where half of the maximum system length was reached).  This was estimated using initial plots of the base data.
 * b – This was estimated by using the MS Excel Goal Seek function across a calculated set of system lengths at various values for t. Goal Seek maximised the value of R-squared, which had been calculated by using the MS Excel RSQ function.

A regression was then performed using the MS Excel Regression function to determine the t-Statistic and R-squared values. Key parameters and statistics are summarised below. Plots show actual and modelled system lengths were generated in MS Excel.

Tianjin
It can be seen that the forecast is accurate. Railroad transportation in Tianjin started to operate in the last century. Real systematic statistics started in the 19th century. The picture shows the passenger flow of railroad transportation from 1985 to 2021. It shows an apparent growth period and a life cycle maturity stage. An overall upward trend can be seen, with a regular oscillation between 1995 and 2007. The period from 2007 until 2020 shows an upward trend. This period is also the growth phase of Tianjin Railway. According to the forecast, Tianjin Railway entered a mature and steady growth phase in 2000. However, from 2020 to 2021, passenger traffic drops significantly due to the global New Crown epidemic. Afterward, as the epidemic gradually subsides, the actual passenger traffic tends to return to the forecasted results. The quantitative analysis does not present a decline period for Tianjin Railway.