Transportation Deployment Casebook/2022/Manitoba

Overview
Streetcar, or in synonyms form Trolley or Tram, is a type of public transport vehicle runs on the track laid on the street, and usually driven by electric motors inside the vehicle. As one of the most historic mode of transport in history, Streetcar was once popular in late 19th century and early to mid 20th century in most major cities around the world. Streetcar is now in decline due to lifestyle changing of people and progressive in transport technology. However, small number of streetcar routes in some major cities are still preserved and transformed to cultural heritage and tourist attraction in today's world. Streetcar is also the ancestor of Light Rail Transit (LRT) system, a new type of transport that is now highly anticipated.

History of Streetcar
The most early known mode of transport similar to streetcar appeared in late 17th century's France, while famous French mathematician Blasie Pascal acquired royal franchise monopoly from the King Louis XIV to operate Carrosses à cinq sols ("Five-sol coaches" in French), a type of coach carrying 6-8 passengers and driven by seven horses, along 5 regular routes in Paris. However, Carrosses à cinq sols at that time was designed to serve Upper classes and still unaffordable for most ordinary citizens and peasants in Paris. During 1820-1860, coaches close to modern sense of streetcar appeared in many major cities in England and United States. However, the term of streetcar at that time is horse-drawn power and not always ran on tracks laid on the street.

Until 1834, Thomas Davenport, a U.S. blacksmith built a small battery powered electric motor and install it on a small vehicle ran on the track. After the invention of generator, the modern term of streetcar which applies overhead electrified wires along streetcar track lines to transmit power firstly appeared in 1862's Salford and 1865's Liverpool in Britain. The adoption of streetcar then spread around the world and became the most popular municipal mode of transport in many major cities in Britain, Europe, North America, Africa and Asia during the whole late 19th century to early to mid 20th century. Streetcar finally declined after First World War because of development and popularization of automobile, the roles of streetcar were replaced by bus in many cities and only few streetcar systems survive worldwide nowadays.

Birthing Phase (1870-1900)
Before electric streetcar, the North-West Omnibus Company already operated stagecoach services connecting Winnipeg, the major city in Manitoba, with a historic railway station in St. Boniface since 1878. But the first horse-drawn streetcar ran on track in Winnipeg appeared in 1882, which operated by Winnipeg Street Railway Company owned by Albert W. Austin, connecting Main Street between the Upper Fort Garry site and the new City Hall at William Avenue. Austin's streetcar company also later tested its first electric streetcar in 1891. However, the first in service electric streetcar was operated by a newly established rival company, Winnipeg Electric Street Railway Company, on July 26, 1892.

After several purchases and merges, Winnipeg Electric Street Railway Company became the biggest provider of streetcar service in Winnipeg since late 19th century. In 1898, Winnipeg Electric Street Railway operated 17 miles (27.36 km) of electrified streetcar line with 4 ft 8.5 in (1,435 mm) gauge, and owned 18 trail cars and 25 motor cars and 1,000 H.P. station powerplant.

Growth Phase (1900-1910)
The total track length of streetcar system in Winnipeg roughly remained unchanged until 1904, Winnipeg Electric Street Railway changed its name to Winnipeg Electric Railway and began its ambitious expansion period. In 1906, Winnipeg Electric Railway first time recorded its annual passenger carried, which 9,504,051 in 1904 and 13,081,249 in 1905, and its total track length of streetcar system achieved 37 miles (59.55 km), nearly double as many as 1898. In 1910, total track length of streetcar system of Winnipeg Electric Railway reached 64.5 miles (103.80 km) and annual passenger carried in 1909 recorded as 26,382,773, which nearly twice as many as 1905. Besides of Winnipeg Electric Railway as the largest streetcar service provider in Winnipeg, two of other smaller scale streetcar operator newly established in this period also provided minor scale electric railway service in the city. The Winnipeg, Selkirk and Lake Winnipeg Railway Company established in May 25, 1908, provided streetcar service from North Winnipeg to West Selkirk and the west shore of Lake Winnipeg. The Suburban Rapid Transit Company offered electric railway service from West Winnipeg on both sides of the Assiniboine River to Headingley since December 2, 1903. In 1910, Winnipeg, Selkirk and Lake Winnipeg Railway owned 21 miles (33.8 km) tracks and a 12 cars fleet, and Suburban Rapid Transit owned 19 miles (30.58 km) tracks.

Mature Phase (1910-1930)
1910-1920 was the golden era of streetcar in Manitoba's transport history. In Winnipeg, three electric railway corporations both reached the peak of its historical achievement. In 1913 the year before World War I, WInnipeg Electric Railway owned 86.878 miles (139.82 km), which nearly seventh times as many as 1904, and carried 51,106,017 passengers in 1912, which nearly fourth times as many as 1905. Even after the end of First World War, growth of both three electric railway company in Winnipeg achieved the highest peak of their historical records in 1919. In 1919, Winnipeg Electric Railway owned 172.6 miles (277.77 km) tracks, which nearly twice as many as 1913 before the war, and a totally 353 cars fleet. Winnipeg, Selkirk and Lake Winnipeg Railway owned 40 miles (64.37 km) tracks, which nearly twice as many as 1910, and a totally 36 cars fleet in 1919. Suburban Rapid Transit also owns 20.31 miles (32.69 km) tracks and a 10 cars fleet mostly rent from Winnipeg Electric Railway at the same year.

Streetcar service was also available in Brandon, the second major city of Manitoba in this era, when Brandon Municipal Railway was established in June 2, 1913. In 1919, Brandon Municipal Railway in Brandon owned 10.31 miles (16.59 km) tracks and a totally 20 cars fleet.

After 1920 and before 1930, the growth of streetcar system in the whole Manitoba was stagnated, but streetcar was still the major municipal transport in both cities of Winnipeg and Brandon in Manitoba.

Decline Phase (1930-present)
Since 1930, streetcar service in Manitoba started to declined like most similar system around the major cities worldwide. Brandon was the first city in Manitoba to abandon streetcar system in April 30, 1932 and then replaced by motor bus service owned by MacArthur Transportation Company in July 4 at the same year. In 1938, electric railway companies in Winnipeg made a decision to gradually convert their interurban streetcar lines to motor bus service, and the last streetcar in Winnipeg region was operated as a farewell ceremony in 1955, which announces the end of streetcar era in Manitoba and their role was replaced by motor bus until present.

Quantitative Analysis for Manitoba, Canada
All the data of passenger carried and track length about the streetcar system in Manitoba was collected from McGraw Electric Manual: The Red Book of American Street Railway Investment from 1898-1920. To estimate the life-cycle of the streetcar system in Manitoba, Canada, research require to use observed data (status (length of system) vs. time), identify the periods of birthing, growth, maturity and decline.

Use the data to estimate a three-parameter logistic function:

S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]

where:


 * S(t) is the status measure,  (e.g. Passenger-km traveled)
 * t is time (usually in years),
 * ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved),
 * Smax is saturation status level, (Choose the maximum length of the streetcar system that you have recorded in the data).
 * b is a coefficient to be estimated.

A single variable linear regression simply estimates the coefficients c and b in a  model of the form:

Y = bX + c

The question is then, what is y (dependent variable) and what is x (independent variable)

In the spreadsheet, it expresses as:

Y=ln(Passengers/(Smax-Passengers))

X=Year

Winnipeg


Overall, both prediction for both total track length and passenger carried in Winnipeg are quite accurate. However, we don't have enough actual historical data after 1920, so it may affect the accuracy the the prediction curve. Especially the curve shows the inflection time is 1911 or 1914, but actually in the real history, the streetcar system in Winnipeg declined since 1930.

Brandon
Compared to results in Winnipeg, the model in Brandon might be the less accurate one because we only have very limited information about the data of streetcar in Brandon. If we can have more information in Brandon after 1920, this curve might be more accurate.