Transportation Deployment Casebook/2018/Guangzhou–Shenzhen–Hong Kong Express Rail

Introduction
The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed rail line runs from Guangzhou City in the north to Hong Kong via Dongguan and Shenzhen to a total length of 142 kilometers. The first phase of the project will be from New Guangzhou Station to the new Shenzhen Railway Station. It is planned to establish five stations in Guangzhou, Tung Chung, Humen, Gongming and New Shenzhen. The second phase works from Shenzhen New Shenzhen Station to West Kowloon Station in Hong Kong.

Essential technological characteristics
When a high-speed train is in operation, the higher the speed of the train, the more difficult it is to achieve good contact between the pantograph and the catenary. This is the pantograph relationship. Wheel-rail relationship (bogie) At high speeds, the creep between the wheelset and the rail, the wheel-rail dynamics, the movement stability, and the curve-passing performance can basically be summarized in the bogie.

One of the two most mature control methods is vector control and direct torque control. There are many implementation difficulties in the specific control methods. Among them, some technologies will be added, such as sensorless technology, nonlinear decoupling and so on. Regenerative braking Regenerative braking is a very environmentally friendly braking technology that uses the kinetic energy of the train to generate electricity and returns it to the grid. Regenerative braking technology is essentially a control technology. It does not require additional main electrical equipment. It simply uses the motor as a generator, the inverter as a rectifier, and the rectifier as an inverter.

In high-speed operation, how to make the equipment work in coordination and eliminate the delay is solved by the network control system. Which involves signal transmission, communication protocols, vehicle-mounted computers and other technologies. As for the train operation system, it mainly focuses on the coordination between the exterior and the train. The traction power supply system of the EMUs is subjected from the catenary to the traction transformer, the traction transformer is transformed to the traction rectifier, then the traction inverter and finally to the traction motor. This is a traction power supply system. The sources of power supply for the interior lighting, air brakes and train control systems are obtained from auxiliary converters.

Main advantage

 * In advantages Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong is an important component of the Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway, and also part of China’s “four vertical and four horizontal” high-speed rail network.
 * people will go to Guangzhou to reduce their time to 48 minutes. It takes only 14 minutes to get to Shenzhen Futian. It takes only 9 hours to transfer to Beijing via the railway.
 * The SAR Government expects that over 60% of the high-speed rail passengers in the future will be passengers from East Rail and through trains. The fares have not yet been finalized.
 * When the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link and the mainland high-speed railway are all open to traffic, the nation’s high-speed rail will be 19,000 kilometres long . Passengers transit to the Guangzhou-Guangzhou Passenger Line to Zhengzhou and Beijing at Guangzhou South Railway Station.
 * From Hong Kong to Beijing, it takes only 9 hours . Compared to the Hong Kong-Beijing Line, it takes more than 20 hours to shorten at least half the time.
 * After the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong High-speed Railway matures, there will be 200 passenger trains to the mainland every day.
 * It is stated that the railway project can create 5,000 jobs during the construction period and create more than 10,000 jobs during the operation period.

Main markets
The planning of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong High-speed Railway emphasizes “people-oriented” and establishes a modern, three-dimensional comprehensive transportation system, making full use of and protecting the topography of the station area, reflecting the “green and ecological” theme of the building.The main stations and substations of high-speed railways are generally located in the city center.

Group to meet the future development.In Hong Kong, the West Rail at the HSR Territory is located in West Kowloon. It is not only close to most commercial, retail, hotel and residential areas in Hong Kong, but also connects to the existing railway and road network.

It is estimated that by 2018, the first year after the opening of the Hong Kong section of the high-speed railway, with the West Kowloon Terminus as the center, it will include nearly 30% of the resident population (2.1 million) and close to 50% of the working population (1.7 million) within a 5 km radius. From the West Kowloon Terminus to the MTR, you will be able to reach most of the commercial districts (Tsim Sha Tsui, Central, etc.) in about 15 minutes and reach most residential areas in Hong Kong within about 30 minutes.

Early market development
The 150-kilometer-long Shenzhen-Guangzhou section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway is the only railway link connecting China and Hong Kong. Guangzhou and Shenzhen Shenzhen is a first-tier city in China and has a population of over 10 million.

Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Together, Hong Kong constitutes the core economic region of the Pearl River Delta region in China. All three major cities have well-developed infrastructure, Including world-class airports, highways and ports. This powerful transportation network enables Guangshen Railway to provide intermodal services.

As Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong are gradually becoming economically integrated, the future political, economic and cultural exchanges between these cities will be More frequent. The Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway will benefit from the continuous growth of transportation demand brought about by the integration of these three major cities.

Growing and mature phase
The Chinese rail way market is operated by government, therefore it is not a free market. In this case, the growth needs of the railway highly depend on policy and regulation. The growing population and price increment will also has impact on the market. Since the railway system is still constructing, the development of passage flow is increasing in a steady rate.

Equation
The formula for quantitative analysis can be introduced by the following equation.

$$S(t)=\left ( \frac{K}{1+exp(-b(t-t0))} \right )$$ (1)

$$y=LN\left ( \frac{Passenger}{K-Passengers} \right )$$   (2)

Where:

S(t) is the status measure (mileage for each year)

t is time in year

t0 is the inflection time (year in which ½ k is achieved)

K is the saturation status level

b is a coefficient

K and b are to be estimated through the regression analysis

Result
The result shows that the expected curve is not quite fit to the recorded data. there are few factor that might lead to the significant difference between predicted daily passenger flow and the actual average daily passenger flowl.


 * Instead of using daily passenger data, the annual passage flow will be more objective base on the model we used. But it seem like the annual passage flow record has not been public yet, therefore, the average flow number is apply to the model.
 * The railway system is operating fully depend on government behavior, which means the recorded data may not be comprehensive.
 * The Chinese transport service only run by government department so there will be no market competition and the demand vs supply is guided by government.
 * The high speed rail way has first been operating on 2010, the development of the railway system is dramatically fast and it is still at the growing phase.The model fail to anticipate the increasing rate.