Mobility 2050/Trains Instead of Planes

Introduction
For decades, trains were the industry leader among long distance travel options, and have been hallmarks of American success in westward expansion. More recently,  they have fallen off in favor of cars and planes. A large majority, around 69%, of Americans support moving towards carbon neutrality by 2050. However, if the U.S. is to shift to  a world less focused on major carbon emitters for  transportation, there has to be a shift back to greener transportation options. Travel by trains can reduce carbon footprint by almost half when compared to planes. A mass shift to usage of trains over planes could have a large impact on reducing carbon emissions. Many of the changes needed are social/cultural and political, although some technical improvements are needed to make train travel safer. This goal for the world of 2050 will be much more achievable following the path laid out here.

Current Projects
Many other countries have been working towards more sustainable futures by increasing accessibility of passenger rail. Most notably, France and Japan have taken different approaches to this issue. Japan has built a large network for the Shinkansen, a high speed bullet train. This was originally designed for long-distance travel, but also serves commuters in metropolitan areas. Although the network currently doesn’t cover the majority of Japan, new proposals and current construction promises to cover a large portion of Japan in coming years. In 2023, France passed legislation that bans flights shorter than 2.5 hours in favor of rail travel. This pushes people to choose trains when traveling. The success of these projects may be attributed to smaller distances between destinations in Japan and Europe compared to the much larger U.S.. The U.S. can take inspiration from both of these examples when designing a shift from planes to trains.

In the U.S. there are projects in California and Florida to build high speed passenger rail lines: California High Speed Rail Authority and Brightline. The California High Speed Rail has faced many roadblocks regarding funding and acquiring property. Brightline has had more success, recently starting operations in Florida and receiving $3 billion in federal funding for constructing a high speed rail line between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. The success of Brightline in Florida is due to some land already being allocated for rail usage, thus the project faced fewer issues with land acquisition. This project incorporated new rails with existing freight lines, reducing costs and resources needed. Currently, Brightline is the only privately owned high speed rail company operating in the U.S. and can be used as a role model for future projects.

Technology changes
All of the technology needed to achieve this vision  exists and is used throughout the world, such as the vast rail systems in Europe and the high speed rails in Japan. Although no new technology is needed for widespread rail travel to be viable, some advancements would be beneficial for current rail lines in America. New technology should focus on safety, such as robotic solutions to prevent trains from going too fast on hazardous tracks. Recent large crashes have been attributed to operators not recognizing the need to slow down for sharp corners, and technology could prevent this in the future such as better autopilots that know the layout of the track that they are on. Other technology changes may focus on improving the passenger experience. Software that better predicts delays or helps with planning connecting trains could address major concerns among rail passengers.

Political changes
Pressure from the National Association of Railroad Passengers can initiate short-term changes to improve efficiency of Amtrak travel. Currently, the law gives Amtrak the right of way over freight trains, but freight trains are too long for the lengths of side tracks. The Department of Justice does not penalize freight train companies despite them violating the law. Action in federal court and enforcement from the Department of Justice will help reduce passenger rail travel times by giving Amtrak right-of-way over freight trains. This is the first major step towards improving the desirability of train travel, further enabling improvements to the dynamic between freight and passenger rail. One limitation of this is the much higher prevalence of and reliance on freight rail to move cargo in the U.S. compared to other countries with more successful passenger rail networks. Next, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), an agency that administers rail funding, can focus on improving existing rail lines to handle newer, faster trains via infrastructure funding allocations. Existing infrastructure is one of the main limitations for passenger rail travel. Many railroads feature sharp curves, old bridges, and tunnels that trains cannot safely travel on at higher speeds. Therefore, infrastructure funds will upgrade current tracks to enable the adaptation of higher speed trains. Remaining funds will create new rail lines to expand existing routes to underrepresented areas. These changes will increase accessibility of travel by trains, making them more competitive with planes.

Long-term changes will focus on implementing high speed rail infrastructure. Efforts from the U.S. High Speed Rail Association will continue to press the FRA for more allocations to high speed rail development. These projects will likely take on a similar form to the current Japanese Shinkansen systems, connecting major cities across the United States with high speed bullet trains. Such high speed rail projects will begin with connecting metropolitan areas that have high traffic between them. Some strong candidates for the first high speed train services in the U.S. are Los Angeles to San Francisco, the Texas Triangle region, and New York to Boston. High speed rail development is ideal for these areas due to the large amounts of commuting traffic and interconnected economies caused by their regional proximity. Although flights will remain faster than high speed trains, the long wait times experienced at airports will enable these regional high speed train services as a faster alternative when considering total travel time. In addition, high speed rail could serve as a cheaper way to travel long distances and could serve as a pull factor away from more expensive flights.

From there, the network of railroads can be expanded to cover the next group of major cities, and so on until rail service is strong enough to support the vast majority of Americans' travel needs. The U.S. can then  look towards social incentives for using trains instead of planes.

Social changes
Socially, the U.S. needs to shift away from its current car and plane based society. In recent years, the younger generation has started to push for better rail systems, such as those seen in Europe. Once political changes have been put into effect to improve rail travel, social changes can easily start with pushes away from air travel.This includes federal carbon taxes on planes and high taxes or bans on short term flights under a specific amount of time (around 2 hours), as seen in France currently. These legal changes aim to remind the American public that trains are a viable and necessary alternative to planes. As rail ridership increases, more privately owned passenger rail companies will form. One possibility is airlines expanding into the train sector, creating more privately owned rails. Amtrak has made similar changes in the past by offering bus travel when their trains are not accessible. There may be concerns regarding security measures of passenger trains compared to planes, but trains inherently need fewer safety measures. Trains also offer fewer restrictions on luggage, more privacy, and more freedom of movement. Building more railroad tracks may have negative impacts, particularly dividing cities/communities. Historically, railroad tracks served as a divider between White and Black communities in the U.S., so it is crucial to ensure that the placement of new tracks is not detrimental to the local population. Promoting the existing benefits of train travel is one step in encouraging people to choose trains. The key for many of these changes is to wait until rail travel becomes a viable alternative to air travel for both travel time and price, so these social changes are treated as a pull factor to the new and improved train systems rather than a push factor that could cause backlash from citizens. PSAs could be a good way of getting information out about new rail lines and the advantages of rail travel.

Conclusion
To achieve this vision of trains instead of planes, changes to the technology, politics, and social behaviors surrounding train travel must be credible, desirable, and feasible, which this vision demonstrates. This vision is credible because of the countries referenced that are already implementing variations or portions of the tools described here. Desirable, because of the positive impact it would have on fossil fuel emissions and improving the comfort of long distance travel. Feasible, because the technology used in this vision largely exists, and where it doesn’t, such as the robotic solutions for controlling trains, the technology exists in other forms of transportation and could be more easily brought over to trains because of their one directional nature.