Mobility 2050/The Future of the 15-Minute City

The 15-minute city is an urban design concept in which everyday destinations (such as homes, shops, work, education, healthcare, and recreation) are reachable within 15 minutes by foot, bike, or public transport from any point in a city. The concept emphasizes accessibility, sustainability, health & safety, and quality of life for city residents. Examples of 15-minute cities include Paris, France and Utrecht.

The 15-minute city aims to reduce car travel within cities, which in turn reduces carbon emissions and increases equity and access for residents. Car-based cities now limit easy transportation to private car owners, which restricts the mobility of several demographics and socio-economic groups. This includes children too young to drive, elderly people who can no longer drive, people whose judgement was poor and driver's license was revoked, people who cannot afford a car, and individuals under the influence, among others.

With movement toward 15-minute cities, emergency services such as hospitals and fire stations increase in availability, grocery stores become more accessible which eliminates food deserts, and education rates increase with schools being closer to home.

Paris, France
Paris, like the United States, once had a well-defined, car-centric infrastructure that caused congestion and pollution. This changed when Paris's mayor, Anne Hidalgo, was re-elected in 2020, with a promise to make Paris a 15-minute city. She worked with urbanist Carlos Moreno, who coined the term "15-minute city" in 2015. Hidalgo's success comes from changing Paris's infrastructure to prioritize bikers and pedestrians over drivers. She phased out private diesel cars, opened parks along old highways, increased parking meter prices, and added bus and bike lanes.

Portland, Oregon
Portland is developing their version of a 15-minute city, with their plan for 20-minute neighborhoods created in 2010. Their 2035 goals include raising high school graduation rates and increasing post-secondary degree and certificate access. They want to create healthy neighborhoods by promoting physical activity, healthier eating and affordable public transportation. They are expanding wellness opportunities, which include physical, mental, emotional, and sexual health services.

Shanghai, China
In 2016, Shanghai became the first Chinese city to commit to the 15-minute city approach to urban planning. In the past several decades, China has experienced a fractured sense of community within neighborhoods due to changes in urban development. However, the desirability of 15-minute cities to promote community life caused local governments to back non-profit organizations like Dayu Community Design to promote community action and combat atomization. For example, in Shanghai's Xinhua neighborhood, non-profits have helped revitalize backstreets and increase accessibility for residents with disabilities. The 15-minute city initiative has been implemented in other Chinese cities, like Baoding and Guangzhou.

Urban sprawl
Urban sprawl results from spread-out development of infrastructure. It puts long distances between residential areas, offices, and stores, which causes car reliance for basic necessities and services. This limits compact, walkable urban areas that are favorable for 15-minute cities. Car reliance causes traffic congestion, which wastes fuel, contributes to air pollution, and leads localities to expand roads, which results in more traffic and sprawl.

In the US, urban sprawl results from zoning regulations that prioritize single-use developments (such as residential suburbs), which limits space for public areas like parks and schools. Some concepts used to mitigate urban sprawl include mixed-use development and transit-oriented development. Mixed-use development introduces affordable housing and promotes community and socialization in affected areas. However, the long-established land use ordinances and strict zoning laws most US cities have prevents mixed-use development and 15-minute cities. New policymakers will address these concerns by changing urban planning and reforming policies, namely by relaxing zoning. Communities coming together with complaints regarding crowded schools, increased traffic congestion, and higher taxes will create 15-minute cities.

Conspiracy theories
Opponents of 15-minute cities claim the government's plan is to remove cars and intrude on individuals' personal freedoms. They claim the U.S. will become a "government-run, open-air prison". They argue that requiring walking or biking will give the government control and digital surveillance over citizens' lives. Others claim that neighborhoods will become "concentration camps" and life will be like "the Hunger Games". They claim that having no cars will divide cities and keep people in their "factions".

Eliminating cars is not a goal of 15-minute cities. The idea emphasizes that cars are not required for safe, simple transportation around the city. With infrastructure designed for walking, cycling, and public transit, the 15-minute city offers a freedom of mobility that car-dependent cities make near impossible. In a 2021 interview for Slate, Paris Deputy Mayor David Belliard summarized his experience with the burden car-centric cities place on their residents: "When I was in Vesoul, I was obliged to have a car, the car was not an object of emancipation but of servitude. I could do nothing without my car."

The propaganda mindset results from misinformation. Once 15-minute cities become accessible, people will realize they can keep their cars with freedom to drive everywhere; they just no longer are solely dependent on cars.

CityAccessMap
CityAccessMap maps 15-minute cities across the globe. 15-minute cities are abundant in the UK, India, and Japan. Thus, we know it's possible for 15-minute cities to become standard in some countries. However, in the United States, they are sparse and only seen in larger cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago. In 2050, after increased gas prices and a shift in policymakers, zoning laws will change, allowing big United States cities to become 15-minute cities, and small cities like Charlottesville to follow suit.

Predictions
The 15-minute city is feasible and is already established in cities like New York City and Los Angeles, but abandoning cars is currently undesirable, due to its convenience and cost-effectiveness. Outside of the US, public transport is essential, but in US cities, it is seen as social welfare. Local politicians see transit as government aid for people without cars, which is a narrative that must change for the 15-minute city to become standard.

Reduction in convenience of private cars
For the 15-minute city to become feasible, obstacles must hinder private cars' desirability, which could include gas prices rising in the coming years. Private cars will no longer be seen as the cost-effective option, which would motivate a switch to less expensive alternative modes of transport. Regulations will reduce the production and sales of gas-powered cars with internal combustion engines (ICEs), much like California's current requirement that all sales of new light-duty passenger vehicles be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2035. ZEVs include battery-electric and fuel cell electric vehicles, so electric vehicles will become a significant portion of the auto market by 2050. However, considering potential sustainability limitations on current methods of mineral extraction and production of EV batteries, electric cars could still be too expensive for the average consumer to purchase, which would reduce the general use of cars.

Pedestrian- and cyclist-friendly urban spaces
Walking and biking will only be widely adopted by city travelers if established as safe and convenient transit options, which requires traffic infrastructure designed with pedestrians and cyclists in mind. Notably, bike lanes could be created or select roads could be transformed into pedestrian plazas out of alternative mobility desires. These modifications might first be temporary, low-cost projects (as some bike lanes in Paris initially were), such that local governments can experiment with the adjustments and seek feedback from residents before committing to a permanent project that requires more extensive development. These experimental projects will encourage local planning commissions to act, as they will take on less immediate risk, face fewer delays from red tape, and better serve the community in their urban design decisions.

Additionally, cities will be made conducive to walking and cycling through the reform of zoning and land-use regulations. If zoning laws are loosened, then mixed-used developments and affordable housing will be more easily and quickly constructed. Mixed-use development promotes density and variety in urban spaces, so that services and facilities are accessibly located and established in accordance with the needs of the area. Affordable housing near to everyday destinations in the city decreases daily commutes to comfortable walking or biking distance.

Educating younger generations
The shift towards an alternative mobility initiative starts with children, by teaching them that walking, biking, and using public transit is healthy and necessary to fight climate change. While many adults are already rooted in notions of convenience and the car-dependent status quo, younger generations can be taught early on to take their mobility into their own hands.