Mobility 2050/Retrofitting Suburbia

In the mid-twentieth century, the United States saw a departure of middle and upper class urban dwellers from city centers to developing suburban communities. This was driven by the baby boom and the ideal of quiet neighborhoods, spacious yards, white picket fences, and room for a family. Along with this demographic shift came increasing rates of car ownership; long commutes became the norm. Today, a travel time of at least 15 minutes to schools, grocery stores, and activities is standard.

But, the era of unsustainable growth in suburbia is ending. 29% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are attributed to transportation in the U.S. and suburban dwellers are three times more GHG emissions than urbanites. Furthermore, intensifying impacts of climate change are influencing people’s lifestyle choices. The societal shift towards denser communities is driven not only by the desire for vibrant communities, but also land stewardship and an aging population. By 2050, 75-85% of suburban homes will not have children .Therefore, it is critical to reimagine our suburbs, particularly those of Northern Virginia (NOVA) which will have a population of three million by 2050. With that pressure, will NOVA build up or out? Existing trends in retrofitting suburbia in Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax County, inform a 2050 projection of suburbia in NOVA. Resilient and attractive suburbs require reformed zoning codes, improved connectivity and micromobility, repurposed building complexes, and reconstruction of wetlands and green spaces.

In Northern Virginia, Arlington County has pioneered the construction of denser commercial and residential areas. It is America’s fourth-smallest county in terms of land size, but is home to 227 thousand people and over 40 million square feet of office space, which is more than that of downtown Denver and Dallas. Even though NOVA’s population has doubled since the 1970s, car traffic in the county has actually decreased. Beginning in the 60s and 70s, city council has played a major role in fighting federal roadway expansion projects and welcoming public transportation from D.C. First, the county prevented the federal government from expanding Interstate 66 through the middle of Rosslyn. Instead, they vouched for the present-day route along the edge of Arlington County and the Potomac River. Secondly, the county invested heavily in constructing a subway  with seven metro stations beneath the heart of Arlington. Lastly, the city has encouraged high rise apartment buildings and townhomes, juxtaposing itself from Washington’s strict building height limits. The two square mile Rosslyn-Ballston corridor added over 15 million square feet of office space, and 15 thousand residential units from 1970-2000. This allowed for walkable and sustainable urban lifestyles to flourish, which has mitigated sprawl and the environmental impacts of auto-centric development. Furthermore, lower obesity levels, heart disease, and more organic social interaction can be directly attributed to this type of development. Proximity to shopping, entertainment, and shared green spaces improves physical and mental health. Arlington is a true success story in achieving a retrofitted suburb, where space is used efficiently and healthier modes of transportation are the norm. This is example is representative of a positive future projection of NOVA: densification and heavy public transportation where there is demand.

Many unused buildings in Northern Virginia have recently been refurbished and repurposed. The Inova Alexandria Hospital project in western Alexandria, VA was constructed on top of the demolished Landmark Mall. Alongside the hospital, the project features a mixed use, urban community with retail space, apartments, townhomes, and a regional bus transit station. Unlike the previous mall, this project features no surface parking lots and instead opts for a single parking garage and street parking. This project, which will be completed in 2028, shows how the future of NOVA suburbia will shift away from low density, single use, car-oriented zoning and towards compact, mixed use, transit-connected developments.

Projects known as “road diets” involve re-striping and adding concrete features to decrease the number of car lanes on busy roadways. Other road diet features include new bike lanes, widened sidewalks, curbs and medians at intersections. A typical four-lane road may be converted into a two-lane road, and the extra space is dedicated to a turning lane and bike throughways. One of the many examples in Northern Virginia is Soapstone Drive in Reston. "Dropping in" on Google Maps shows that the road in 2009 around the 2300 block followed a typical pre-road diet design: 4 lanes and parking. The same location today has the typical road diet design: two travel lanes, a turning lane, bike lanes in both directions, parking, and a new sidewalk. Ohlms, Dougald, and MacKnight (2020) performed an analysis of the efficacy of Virginia road diets, including Soapstone Drive, through the Virginia Transportation Research Council. They noted a 70% decrease in crashes while travel times remain the same. 47% of survey respondents indicate they cycle more on Soapstone Drive, and 69% perceive the road to be safer than before. Given the prevalence of road diets in NOVA, their technical success, and their popularity with locals, more of these projects will likely be built by 2050.

Electric vehicle (EV) popularity has soared recently in light of the climate crisis. In such a car-centric place like NOVA, there is growing demand for more EV charging infrastructure. In 2020, the Virginia legislature passed a “right-to-charge” law, ensuring that homeowner/condominium associations cannot restrict a resident from installing EV charging stations on property owned by a resident. Furthermore, in 2021 the VA legislature passed a “Clean Car” law mandating that all new vehicles sold must be electric by 2035. Currently, there are ~1300 charging stations in the state, and the total number has increased 75% since 2020. There is increased demand for EV infrastructure to support the transition to a more sustainable transportation system. Rep. Adele McClure, D-Arlington, oversees the Commission on Electric Utility Regulation to oversee the design standards and requirements to safely bring charging capabilities into new housing developments. McClure questioned constituents to learn where they most would most like to see new infrastructure built. Common answers were nearby places of work, study, public parking lots, and proximity to major roads. “I started thinking about ways where we can ensure that there are more charging stations, especially when it comes to new [home] builds,” said McClure, and she emphasized the need to develop “easy-ready and EV-capable residential communities.” Local and state legislation are tools to shape the evolution of NOVA’s infrastructure to create an easy transition to EV usage. The positive trend of EV use and the support from the government suggest that NOVA in 2050 will have hassle-free EV ownership and therefore more transportation options for all.

In March 2023, updates and declarations for zoning reform were issued by the Virginia Supreme Court and various counties. The Arlington County Board voted unanimously to allow multifamily structures (up to six units) in neighborhoods that were previously designated as R-20, 10, 10T, 8, 6, and 5 (single-family, detached homes). They also expanded the maximum lot coverage and varied parking requirements based on transit proximity. In Fairfax County, the Zoning Ordinance Modernization Project (zMOD) aims to correct inconsistencies in codes and promote user engagement by making zoning information more accessible. Fairfax County adopted the zMOD initiative in 2021, but the Virginia Supreme Court overturned it in March 2023 due to insufficient improvements in zoning functionality. That said, both Arlington's zoning reform and the zMOD project in Fairfax County exemplify a surge in civilian involvement concerning zoning codes. They reflect a trend towards the densification of residential properties and inform a 2050 projection of Northern Virginia’s zoning reform.

The County of Fairfax has published a Communitywide Strategic Housing Plan to respond to growing housing needs. It was initiated five years ago, but the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the growing pressure on the Fairfax County Redevelopment and Housing Authority (FCRHA) to supply affordable housing. The pandemic has resulted in the rapid urbanization of Virginia suburbs and urban centers. This is true for towns and cities outside of NOVA as well. Hamilton Lombard, a demographics research specialist with the University of Virginia, says “Even the tiny town of Covington has stronger demographics than its rural neighboring areas. We see the same trend everywhere – in Harrisonburg versus Rockingham County, stronger growth in Charlottesville than Albemarle”. The FCRHA has responded to this demand by identifying underutilized parcels in the county’s possession that can be transformed into affordable housing. In 2020, the County Board of Supervisors approved a plan to retrofit the Fair Oaks Mall, building 2,000 housing units and converting parking lots to street grids, shops, restaurants, and office space. Furthermore, right across I66 is the Fairfax County Government Center, where over 800,000 square feet of parking is unused. This lot is also being considered for the construction of affordable housing units. As District Supervisor James Walkinshaw states, “I was always astounded by the thousands and thousands of parking spaces at the government center. In the past there was a sense it was useful to have that vast surface parking that was never full, but if we’re serious about our affordable housing agenda, then we have to start in our own front yard”. Existing affordable housing units, Residences at Government Center, are highlighted in red in Figure 1. Given that the Fair Oaks Mall retrofit plan includes a pedestrian bridge across I66, this entire area has the potential to become a dense, urban hub at an affordable price for residents. Additionally, FCRHA’s focus on identifying underutilized parking lots for infill projects shows the northern Virginia county’s initiative for a denser, more urban 2050.

Solutions to retrofitting suburbia extend beyond urban contexts. Restoring natural environments is a crucial component of improving suburbs. As vast swaths of land were developed in the mid-twentieth century, wetlands and green spaces were paved over for parking lots and buildings. This trend has left suburbs more vulnerable to flooding amid intensified storm events. In the late 1980s in Fairfax County, VA, Huntley Meadows Park wetlands suffered from silt pollution due to encroaching suburban expansion and construction. Consequently, the draining of these wetlands drove away beavers and their dams, resulting in a drop in water levels. This aridification enabled invasive plant species to further disrupt the ecological balance. In 2013, beavers returned after a restoration project aimed at regulating water levels was completed. Now, the wetland has been transformed into a recreational area and an effective stormwater management system. This success story underscores the potential for suburban revitalization by integrating nature-centric solutions in these communities and shows the potential for similar projects by 2050.

Critics of the trends exemplified by these case studies fear a change in their lifestyle. Many people want to live in a cul-de-sac and drive everywhere. When activists promote a dense, multimodal future, suburbanites envision their neighborhoods becoming targets for teardowns. The reality is that million-dollar homes in NOVA will not be torn down. Instead, zoning reforms will permit the construction of secondary housing units and voluntary densification on properties that were previously designated for single-family detached homes. This presents a revenue opportunity for current suburban residents and private developers. Underutilized sites and transportation features will be revitalized, and NOVA residents will have more mobility choices than driving.

There are some roadblocks to achieving these goals and vision for suburban redevelopment. Zoning and legislative reforms require persuading residents, property owners, and municipal and federal government leaders. Redeveloping abandoned infrastructure requires landowners that are willing to sell their properties. Repurposing mall spaces requires owners to accept changes to the layout and uses of their malls. There is a need for strong grassroots organizing and civic leadership in order to lead the charge on these matters, and to overcome institutional roadblocks. Lastly, redevelopment requires property owners to be risk tolerant.

Like all civil and urban planning matters, satisfying all stakeholders is challenging. But regardless, there is a strong imperative for revitalizing such regions. Case studies in Northern Virginia unveil strategies for densifying sprawl. Examining these approaches illustrates NOVA’s evolution by 2050 as an ecologically balanced, denser, and better connected region. New zoning amendments enable the development of multifamily residences and mixed-use complexes, while limiting parking space in areas with access to high-quality public transit. Increased investment in rail and shared mobility by VDOT and transportation authorities will reduce car dependence. Dieting roadways will improve safety for all users. Moreover, extensive trail networks among cul-de-sacs and meandering streets combined with localized urban centers can improve micromobility. Underused office spaces, parking lots, and malls can be transformed into vibrant, functional urban hubs. Challenges like the heat island effect and severe storms require natural revitalization, converting paved areas into green spaces and wetlands. The current policies and construction projects in NOVA show the trajectory of the region’s built environment and transportation and offer a vision of retrofitting suburbia by 2050.